George Soros: Greece Is Now a Lose-Lose Game
Comment of the Day

March 24 2015

Commentary by David Fuller

George Soros: Greece Is Now a Lose-Lose Game

The investment veteran George Soros has said that Greece’s attempts to escape its financial woes are now a “lose-lose game”, and has estimated the chances of the country leaving the eurozone at about even.

Speaking as the leaders of Greece and Germany met for high-stakes negotiations over Greece’s ongoing support within the currency union, Mr Soros warned that “we are at the cusp and I can see both possibilities”.

“It’s now a lose-lose game and the best that can happen is actually muddling through,” Mr Soros said in a Bloomberg Television interview that will be shown on Tuesday. “Greece is a long-festering problem that was mishandled from the beginning by all parties.”

Mr Soros, known for his bet against the pound during the UK’s exit from the European exchange rate mechanism in 1992, said Greece was running out of time to put its finances on a sustainable footing within the eurozone.

“You can keep on pushing it back indefinitely” by making interest payments without writing down debt, Soros said. “But in the meantime there will be no primary surplus because Greece is going down the drain.”

The Greek government has estimated that it could run out of money by the end of April if a vital €7.2bn in bail-out funds is not released.

The head of the European Central Bank, meanwhile, has hit back at accusations it is blackmailing Greece's new anti-austerity leadership. “We haven’t created any rule for Greece, rules were in place and they’ve been applied,” Mario Draghi told an audience of the European Parliament on Monday.

David Fuller's view

It is hard to disagree with this, and it appears to be just a question of how long both side prolong the agony.

How might Grexit affect the markets?

It is impossible to be certain about the timing, terms and political environment of Grexit.  No one can know that at this stage.  However, we should be prepared for a kneejerk reaction in the region’s stock markets and probably a somewhat softer Euro.  However, these would be temporary events, during an ongoing programme of QE from the ECB.  Consequently, a pullback by the remaining EU stock markets would most likely result in a buying opportunity, with the Euro also firming somewhat.    

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