Osborne Touts Economic Custody to Break UK Election Deadlock
Comment of the Day

March 18 2015

Commentary by David Fuller

Osborne Touts Economic Custody to Break UK Election Deadlock

Here is the opening of this topical article from Bloomberg on the last and very important budget before the General Election on 7th May:

(Bloomberg) -- Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne twinned his Conservative Party’s custody of a broadening U.K. economic recovery with a sprinkling of incentives for voters as he sought to break a campaign deadlock going into the May 7 general election.

Fifty days before a vote that polls suggest will yield no overall majority, Osborne unveiled higher economic growth and lower deficit and unemployment forecasts along with help for the North Sea oil industry and a freeze on fuel duty in a push for a Tory victory over the main opposition Labour Party.

While announcing measures including help for first-time homebuyers and cuts to taxes on beer, cider and Scotch whisky, the chancellor’s final pre-election budget lacked the surprise element that has been a hallmark of his past budget statements to the House of Commons in London.

“I’m slightly surprise he didn’t give more away,” Peter Kellner, president of polling company YouGov Plc, said in a telephone interview. Osborne had to avoid the impression of doling out pre-election bribes, said Kellner. The result is that “as a budget it was economically dull but politically smart,” he said.

Osborne’s assertion to lawmakers in the House of Commons on Wednesday that “Britain is walking tall again” mirrors Prime Minister David Cameron’s attempts to use the improved growth and deficit figures to bolster his case that the Conservatives are better placed than Ed Miliband’s Labour Party to steer the economic recovery.

With budget measures such as increased levies on banks and a program to top up deposits for people wanting to buy their first home, the chancellor took the election fight to Labour, which has campaigned on declining living standards as prices have outstripped wages. He also announced measures to improve infrastructure and devolve more powers to cities in northern England as well as financial help for a lagoon project in Wales, both traditional Labour heartlands.

David Fuller's view

I thought it was an excellent budget, delivered with forceful precision, wit and panache.  George Osborne finally had a good story to report.  Great Britain’s recovery has led developed economies.  Unemployment is down.  Older voters have been given much more freedom with how they deploy and use their pensions.  Osborne is reducing the national debt with profits from the resale of banks which had to be partially nationalised and bailed out during the financial crisis in 2008.  “The sun is shining and we are repairing the roof”, was one of his appropriate comments.

It was an inclusive budget with benefits and incentives for all regions of the United Kingdom.  He effectively spiked Labour’s criticisms of the last five years.  Opposition leader Ed Miliband’s opening response was floundering, with weak, repeated claims that people would not believe the Chancellor.  I switched off.

I do not see how any objective observer could conclude anything other than the Tories deserve to be re-elected on 7th May.  However, I suspect a large portion of the electorate will pay little attention to the budget, or the UK’s modest recovery against very difficult global economic conditions, and vote along the usual tribal lines.  At least that is what I have seen during too many previous elections.    

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