Greece Solution Without a Federal Europe Remains Elusive
Comment of the Day

March 10 2015

Commentary by David Fuller

Greece Solution Without a Federal Europe Remains Elusive

This is my own title for this otherwise unchanged article by  Evans-Pritchard for The Telegraph, and here is a section:

Jean-Claude Juncker, the European Commission’s chief, warns that the EMU authorities must tread with great care. “What worries me is that not everybody in the European Union seems to have understood the seriousness of the situation in Greece,” he told Die Welt.

Mr Juncker issued a categorical guarantee that Greece will not be forced out of EMU. “There will never be a Grexit. The country is and will remain a member of monetary union. A Greek withdrawal would lead to an irreparable loss of global prestige for the whole EU.”

Such comments – and similar words by the German and French leaders – are hazardous. If Europe fails to defuse the crisis after all and precipitates an EMU break-up, any pledges to defend Portugal, Italy and Spain against contagion would be greatly devalued.

They may also embolden Mr Tsipras, since they appear to confirm his calculated gamble that the Eurogroup is bluffing and will have to yield in the end as greater geostrategic pressure is brought to bear.

Yet Mr Tsipras must equally tread with care. His popularity has slipped from 84pc to 64pc since early in February. Almost 70pc of Greeks say they want Syriza to reach an “honourable compromise” with the Eurogroup, though it is hard divine what constitutes “honourable”. A full 27pc already want a return to the drachma.

The two sides are talking past each other. Mr Tsipras warned of a fresh showdown – or “thriller” as he called it - if the European Central Bank withholds liquidity support for the Greek banking system, warning Frankfurt of the “great responsibility” it will have to carry if it pushes Greece over the edge.

This moment of decision may already be close. Last week, Greece requested a €2bn increase in emergency liquidity (ELA) ceiling in order to offset deposit flight and keep banks afloat. The ECB granted €500m. This has been exhausted.

Greek officials say that the country will have to take radical action within days unless the ECB relents. It is understood that Frankfurt will hold an emergency session to review the ELA crisis on Wednesday.

David Fuller's view

Here is a PDF version of the article.

I see no unified solution to this problem for Euroland, unless the stronger economies agree to subsidise Greece and other faltering states on a more or less permanent basis.  Germany and the other recovering EU economies have been resisting this ‘solution’ because they know it will inevitably increase their payouts and be extremely unpopular with their electorates.  However, without the weaker states and an extremely accommodative ECB, Germany and its stronger EU allies would immediately lose the benefit of an extremely competitive currency. 

This is an opportunity for global investors because they can currently buy the EU’s multinational Autonomies at bargain prices, thanks to an inexpensive Euro and lower valuations relative to most other stock markets.  Currency hedges are no longer so important for long-term investors because the Euro is approaching overshoot territory in terms of its devaluation. In other words, it can go lower but will eventually bounce back.

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