Greece Deal Reached
Comment of the Day

February 20 2015

Commentary by David Fuller

Greece Deal Reached

(Bloomberg) -- Euro-area finance ministers reached an accord that would keep bailout funds flowing to Greece in return for a commitment to meet certain conditions, buying time to work out the detail of longer-term Greek financing.

Talks in Brussels between officials from the 19 euro-area finance officials concluded Friday evening with an agreement to extend aid to Greece for four months.

“We agreed on four months under conditions,” Austrian Finance Minister Hans Joerg Schelling told reporters after the meeting. Greece must submit a list on Monday of measures it will undertake in return and “the institutions check whether the list is sufficient,” he said.

Breakthrough in the standoff between Greece and its creditors eases the immediate risk of Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’s government running out of cash as early as next month. It might also go some way to help repair the ties between Greece and Germany, the biggest European contributor to Greece’s 240 billion-euro ($274 billion) twin bailouts and the chief proponent of economic reforms in return.

U.S. stocks rose and the euro advanced with European equity futures amid optimism over the prospects for an accord.

David Fuller's view

This is good news for long-side only investors.  Stock markets or their futures contracts where still open after official market closes were on fire this evening.  There is relief buying and plenty of scrambling to cover short positions which are toast.

Which stock markets will do best over the next few months?

I think it will be the beneficiaries of quantitative easing (QE) which I have been talking about recently.  These are Japan and European Union stock markets, both of which had been out of favour for a number of months, until February.  Consequently, they are attractively valued catch-up plays. 

Whatever the long-term merits, or otherwise of QE, we know that it has been very good at lifting stock markets where central banks are following this policy.  That is hardly surprising, since one of the main intentions of central banks deploying QE is to improve confidence by pumping up stock markets. 

Japan shows every sign of being in a long-term bull market recovery, now that the government is following sensible policies.  EU stock markets have been the least loved, mostly developed markets for at least two decades.  I still regard the EU as a somewhat risky experiment so my focus is on the region’s multinational Autonomies, ETFs and also leading stock market indices for trades.   

Improving sentiment towards Europe partially removes what has long been a headwind for other stock markets.  Many will benefit while Europe looks like a recovery situation, not least the USA.

(See also: Germany Turns Up Pressure on Greece as Cash Crunch Looms.)

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