Euro-Area Growth Accelerates on Fuel From German Surge
Comment of the Day

February 13 2015

Commentary by David Fuller

Euro-Area Growth Accelerates on Fuel From German Surge

Here is the opening of this informative report from Bloomberg:

(Bloomberg) -- The euro-area economy picked up momentum at the end of last year, with Germany reasserting itself as the driver of growth, offsetting weakness in Greece and Italy.

Gross domestic product rose 0.3 percent in the fourth quarter after expanding 0.2 percent in the previous three months, the European Union’s statistics office in Luxembourg said Friday. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News predicted growth of 0.2 percent. The Greek economy unexpectedly shrank 0.2 percent.

While the currency bloc’s economy is overcoming its longest-ever slump, falling consumer prices and the rise to power of an anti-austerity party in Greece have increased the risks to growth. To avert deflation in a region where consumer spending is bolstering the recovery, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi announced a 1.1 trillion-euro ($1.3 trillion) quantitative-easing package that has already pushed down bond yields and the single currency.

“For the first time in two years, we can say that the region is going for solid growth,” said Anna Maria Grimaldi, an economist at Intesa Sanpaolo SpA in Milan. “The euro area is supported by the very strong tailwinds of the fall of the euro, the fall of oil prices and the fall of interest rates sparked by ECB QE.”

The euro remained higher after the report and traded at $1.1413 at 12:10 p.m. Frankfurt time. Germany’s benchmark DAX index, which broke through 11,000 for the first time earlier on Friday, was up 0.5 percent.

The German economy, the region’s largest, expanded 0.7 percent in the fourth quarter, more than twice as much as forecast, while French growth slowed in line with economists projections. The Greek economy shrank after three quarters of growth, and Italy’s stagnated after two consecutive quarters of contraction. Growth in Portugal and the Netherlands was 0.5 percent, more than analysts anticipated.

David Fuller's view

Poor old European Union; its economies have resembled comatose patients for more years than I care to remember, having overdosed on socialism and bureaucracy and a single currency.  Finally, along comes a nice Dr Frankenstein, only with an Italian accent and resembling Mario Draghi.  He promises to pump in vital QE fluids, commencing in March.  Miraculously, the EU’s economic near corpses are already twitching in anticipation of recovery.  OK, they show the effects of being bolted together, but this is a welcome revival, if not a happy ending.   

The Russian threat and Greece aside, this looks like a good opportunity for the EU’s stock markets.  Previously shunned, they are relatively cheap; exporters are benefitting from the depressed currency and QE is generally a bonanza for share valuations.     

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