Since we expect a mild acceleration in global economic growth, we expect S&P 500 earnings to rise, but at a low single-digit pace.  In our view, the impact of the dollar will be a headwind for US companies, which is one of the reasons we don’t expect valuation multiple expansion for U.S. equities in 2015.  But a stronger US dollar should be a tailwind to those countries whose currencies have fallen, and we expect stronger earnings growth from the companies we own in Europe and Japan.  

David Fuller's view

Here is The Weekly View.

This is a sensible comment, in my opinion.  Fuller Treacy Money remains long-term bullish of the US stock market.  In fact, we maintain that it will experience a secular bull trend, which could persist for the next two decades.  However, higher valuations, a strong US dollar, and weak economic governance at the national-political level are headwinds.  This is reflected by a weaker performance in 2015, to date, relative to most of Asia and Europe, even after the indices from these regions are valued in US Dollars.  One example: India’s CNX Nifty is up +8.51% as of 3^rd February, versus the S&P 500 Index which is still down by -0.43% this year, despite rallying during the last two days. 

I think this would only change significantly in the event of a bearish trend for global stock markets, which I am not forecasting.  In a weak environment for equities the US would generally outperform because it has a lower beta.