U.S. Economy Expanded Less Than Forecast in Fourth Quarter
Comment of the Day

January 30 2015

Commentary by David Fuller

U.S. Economy Expanded Less Than Forecast in Fourth Quarter

(Bloomberg) -- The economy in the U.S. expanded at a slower pace than forecast in the fourth quarter as cooling business investment, a slump in government outlays and a widening trade gap took some of the luster off the biggest gain in consumer spending in almost nine years.

Gross domestic product grew at a 2.6 percent annualized rate after a 5 percent gain in the third quarter that was the fastest since 2003, Commerce Department figures showed Friday in Washington. The median forecast of 85 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for a 3 percent advance. Consumer spending, which accounts for almost 70 percent of the economy, climbed 4.3 percent, more than projected.

Swept up by the cheapest gasoline in years and the biggest employment increase since 1999, households are gaining the confidence to spend more freely, which will bolster the odds the world’s biggest economy can escape a global slowdown unscathed. Engaged consumers will help ensure that most American employers will look to expand, even as the decline in oil hurts companies such as Caterpillar Inc.

The expansion last quarter was “all about a solid consumer performance,” said Guy LeBas, chief fixed-income strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott LLC in Philadelphia, who correctly forecast the fourth-quarter growth rate. “Overall, the number has returned to trend growth after a couple of really hot quarters.”

David Fuller's view

The US consumer is in better shape with the help of higher employment, some wage increases and cheaper gasoline.  However, the US Dollar Index’s sharp rise remains a headwind for the profits of US multinational companies.  More seriously, a sharp slowdown in the domestic energy sector, particularly regarding fracking, will weigh on 1Q GDP growth, and probably beyond. 

That said, we are finally seeing some short covering in the price of crude oil WTI (weekly & daily) Brent (weekly & daily).  This provides the first evidence that a bottoming out process has commenced.  If there are large short positions in these markets, the developing pattern could be V-bottom with right-hand extension, as taught at The Chart Seminar.  If so, the key question for the oil industry will be how extensive that right-hand base formation extension proves to be.  

Back to top

You need to be logged in to comment.

New members registration