The current weather situation is like an old Greek legend. A deadly sword hung suspended over a throne, illustrating the danger of holding power. Only a single fragile horsehair kept the deadly blade from plunging into the hapless Damocles. He was relieved to escape.

Similarly cutting Arctic cold is dangling north of North America and Eurasia and, unlike Damocles, we are going to have it plunge south. Indeed, ask Buffalo, New York, the cold and record-breaking snow­fall has already hit them.

The Arctic air mass has been unusually cold. Three years ago, in 2011, two polar volcanoes had large eruptions –Iceland’s Mt. Grimsvótn in May and Mt. Sheveluch the following June. Both were large enough to deposit volcanic ash and chemicals into the stratosphere, the quiet portion of the upper atmosphere where debris can lin­ger for years.

Once the debris was in the strato­sphere, it lingered for years. Water collected around the aerosols and formed thick clouds. Both the de­bris and the clouds blocked out incom­ing sunlight and the Arctic air mass cooled. This year, for example, the sum­mer melting season was so much cooler that, at the end, the Arctic had 1.5 million square kilometers, (579,000 sq. miles) more polar sea ice than two years ago in 2012.

David Fuller's view

Here is the Browning Newsletter.

I suspect this issue was written during the USA’s early December cold spell, which was a seasonal shocker, coming a month before last year’s January freeze.  Today’s weather is much milder, but windy and rainy.  Last winter was the warmest I can recall for London and I would welcome similar condition during the next few months, although hopefully without the serious flooding.  Meanwhile, long-term weather forecasts remain as unpredictable as ever, in my opinion.