Putin Is Not Worried. You Should Be
Comment of the Day

December 18 2014

Commentary by David Fuller

Putin Is Not Worried. You Should Be

Putin's spin today on why Russians should stick with him through the hardship was different:“

No, this is not payback for Crimea. This is payback, or, rather, payment for our natural desire for self-preservation as a nation, as a civilization, as a state... Sometimes it occurs to me: perhaps our bear should sit back peacefully, stop chasing piglets around the taiga woods and just feed on berries and honey? Perhaps then they'll leave him alone? No they won't, because they will always want to put him on a chain. And as soon as they succeed in putting him on a chain, they will rip out his teeth and his claws. Today, that means the nuclear deterrent. As soon as this happens, God preserve us, the bear won't be needed and the taiga will immediately be grabbed. We have heard many times almost from officials that it's unfair that Siberia with its immeasurable wealth belongs entirely to Russia. Unfair, how do you like that? And grabbing Texas from Mexico was fair.

”This tirade shows why Western leaders have found it impossible to talk reasonably with Putin. He appears so out of touch he could have been from another planet. The U.S. grabbing Texas from Mexico? An invasion of Siberia by covetous Westerners? Seriously? It's useless to point out to him that Texas' secession from Mexico in 1836 resulted from a revolution, not a land grab, and ended in Texas setting itself up as an independent state for the next ten years; it makes no sense to tell him the story of former U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright complaining about the unfairness of resource distribution is apocryphal, a Russian invention. 

David Fuller's view

I keep returning to Putin because he is currently a far greater risk to the West and especially Europe, in my opinion, than other perceived threats.  For instance, markets remain concerned about Middle Eastern terrorists, North Korea, or any other rogue nation or organisation.  Some investors also worry about China, which is certainly a superpower with a very different form of government, from the democracies.  Nevertheless, a multipolar world offers some balance, hopefully coupled with mutual interest and responsibility.

The trouble with Putin, aside from being paranoid, the product of a vile KGB system, and economic with the truth, to put it politely – he is the sole power in Russia.  Consequently, there are no checks and balances.  Putin is the little emperor, who drives out or jails his rivals.  He surrounds himself with sycophants and buys the loyalty of capable oligarchs who can enrich themselves at the State trough, provided they stay out of politics.  Therefore Putin will never become a moderate and reliable partner for western democracies.  He has by far the largest military in Europe and few qualms about using it for intimidation.  Consequently, Putin is extremely dangerous, especially as he realises that a growing number of capable and internationally focussed Russians would like to remove him from power.    

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