Email of the day 2
Comment of the Day

September 17 2014

Commentary by David Fuller

Email of the day 2

On China’s banks, in response to the email I posted on Tuesday:

“In the wake of today's cash infusion to the big 5 Chinese banks I am interested in how it is being characterized as a loan. Is it possible it is more like November 2008 when the Fed jammed home billions to U.S. banks? The shadows of China don't seem to ever go away.”

David Fuller's view

Yes, the situations are somewhat similar but far less panicky than in 2008.  No doubt China’s large banks have plenty of non-performing loans.  However, the controlling shareholders are China’s ruling élite, so these banks will remain solvent.  They also have good yields.  For instance, the largest is Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, which currently sells at an estimated p/e of 4.46 and yields 7.35%, according to Bloomberg.  Valuations of China’s other giant banks are very similar.  In an uncertain world, my guess is that they are long-term recovery candidates, currently trading near their 2008/2009 troughs.    

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