Interesting chats of the day
Comment of the Day

May 22 2014

Commentary by David Fuller

Interesting chats of the day

Price charts help you to recognise and monitor the crowd’s moves, and sometimes to even anticipate them.

David Fuller's view

The US Russell 2000 Index of medium to smaller cap stocks (weekly & daily) was a leader on the upside but has clearly lost form.  While it has yet to break beneath lateral trading near 1080, a clear break in the progression of lower rally highs, best seen on the daily chart, is the minimum required to indicate that the present range will be extended.

Interestingly, the Nasdaq 100 Index (weekly & daily), which I have been mentioning in the two most recent Audios, still shows rising lows since the mid-April test of lateral trading near 3400.  Moreover, it has now broken above lateral trading near 3625 within this range of nearly six months.  Since this Index was also a leader, and more important than the Russell 2000, it indicates that the liquidity-fuelled bull market is not over, although it has lost overall upside moment.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 (weekly & daily) has a very choppy pattern and trying to analyse ranging trading, created by uncertainty and a standoff between supply and demand, is a hazardous profession.  Nevertheless it is still encountering support near the 14,000 region against the background of monetary accommodation.  A clear break in the lower rally highs evident on the daily chart would indicate that demand is regaining the upper hand. 

Platinum (weekly & daily) and particularly palladium (weekly & daily) have been leading precious metals higher this year, mainly on supply concerns regarding Russia and South Africa.  Palladium is approaching psychological resistance from the 2011 highs and there is more than enough underlying trading to sustain an upward break, provided this year’s higher reaction lows are maintained.  Platinum shows base formation development and is trading at its highest level since September 2013.  Currently, a close beneath $1460 would be required to delay sideways to higher trading, although the last important low in this year’s rising sequence is at $1400.  Gold (weekly & daily) continues to hold approximately half of its gains since the yearend low just above $1180, as the upside weekly key reversal was forming at yearend 2013.  Further gains by palladium and platinum could help to revive interest in gold, especially as it is historically cheap relative to palladium.  Silver (weekly & daily) is quietly steady near the lower side of its range.  I have long regarded silver as high-beta gold and when the yellow metal is next in an uptrend, I would not be surprised to see silver begin to outperform it on the upside.    

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