The Next India: From a Cyclical Downturn to a Structural Upturn
Comment of the Day

May 16 2014

Commentary by David Fuller

The Next India: From a Cyclical Downturn to a Structural Upturn

My thanks to a subscriber for this informative report from Morgan Stanley. Here is part of the Preface:

David Fuller's view

Here is the Morgan Stanley report.

The authors are looking for a GDP expansion from US$1.9 trillion to US$5 trillion by 2025.  

That would be an impressive growth rate.  To achieve it, Central Bank governor Raghuram Rajan’s efforts to rein in inflation will need to be supported by the new government.  Modi’s economic team will also need to reduce the budget deficit, simplify rules on investment and production, and hasten infrastructure projects required to make the economy more efficient.  Modi can also cut the red tape which has seriously deterred desirable inward investment by foreign firms. 

Experienced investors often point out that fast GDP growth does not necessarily ensure comparable stock market appreciation.  This may be true but India’s stock market is already benefiting from a re-rating by global investors.  A year ago, few people wanted to invest in India.  One astonishing election result is changing those perceptions.  (See Bloomberg's India Street Wrap, published on the 13th , when the election was perceived as less certain.)

 

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