Martin Spring: On Target: China: Assessing the Risks
My thanks to the author for his informative letter. This issue is devoted mainly to
Millions of people every year continue to move from rural areas to the cities, and retail sales continue to grow every year at astonishing rates. Even though there is no more “low-hanging fruit” in manufacturing, where labour costs are rising fast, there is plenty of scope for generating growth and jobs in the service industries.
Christopher Wood of investment bank CLSA says that despite “the rising chorus of bearish sentiment” towards China, the track record since the reform programme began in 1978 suggests it would be wise to give its leadership the benefit of the doubt. “Most policymakers are fully aware of the issues” cited by the pessimists and “are certainly not in denial about them.”
China has delivered an unprecedented economic transformation over the past decade, with the share of work-force in agriculture falling from a half to a third, the share of exports in economic output falling to a quarter, and the share of services in economic activity overtaking that of industry, all achieved with continuing high economic growth. Similar dramatic development seems probable.
Here is On Target.
Martin Spring discusses some stocks listed in Hong Kong that may interest subscribers, from an attractive yield play to consumer industry shares.Back to top