World Gold Council: 2013 Review And 2014 Outlook
Comment of the Day

February 11 2014

Commentary by David Fuller

World Gold Council: 2013 Review And 2014 Outlook

My thanks to a subscriber for this detailed and balanced review.  

Here is the opening:

The gold price fell in 2013 as investors reacted to Fed tapering expectations, and money flowed into equities. We believe prices now reflect a consensus view to monetary policy normalisation and should be less sensitive to it. We view the direction of the US dollar as well as the strength of Asian demand as key indicators of gold sentiment. Further, potentially reduced mine production at lower prices should, in our view, limit the downside. Finally, our research shows that gold should not be looked at in isolation but as part of portfolio and that a small strategic allocation can reduce the long-term level of risk.

2013 in perspective

Gold had its first annual loss in 12 years, falling by 27.3% (based on the London PM fix) during 2013. Strong demand from China - poised to have a record year for gold consumption - and India, despite a less than supportive fiscal environment, coupled with a continuation of central bank purchases was not enough to counteract strong outflows from gold-backed ETFs and deteriorating sentiment in derivatives markets.

David Fuller's view

Here is the article, published by Seeking Alpha.

The World Gold Council article had some interesting graphs but this chart of Total Known ETF Holdings of Gold is particularly relevant in terms of western sales commencing in 2012. However, it is a lagging indicator as London Spot Gold peaked in 2011.  I have been saying in many of the Audios that the longer gold ranged near current levels, the more likely that this was support building prior to a further recovery, rather than distribution before an additional sell-off.  Interestingly, gold rallied to its highest level since November today, reaching an intraday high of $1293.93 (not shown so we will have to adjust this updating time).  While gold maintains its recent progression of higher reaction lows, with the last one at $1236, I would give the upside the benefit of the doubt.  An eventual upturn in the Total Known ETF Holdings shown above would confirm that a significant recovery was underway.

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