Here is a latter section from this informative column by Roger Bootle for The Telegraph:
Although each of the MINT countries will probably do pretty well over the years ahead, with Indonesia in particular perhaps capable of 7pc growth, these countries do not stand out from others in their respective regions.
Although Mexico could be the growth leader in Latin America, in South-East Asia, the Philippines and Vietnam have exceptional growth prospects, and in Africa, Kenya and possibly even Egypt do - the latter if it could get itself sorted out. Meanwhile, in Europe, Poland has good prospects, although probably not quite as good as Turkey’s.
Talk of growth prospects naturally leads people to dream of spectacular returns in the stockmarket. Last year the Nigerian market put in a stellar performance – up by nearly 50pc over the year – but equity markets in the other three MINTs fell over the year.
It must always be remembered that, for a variety of reasons, the link between economic growth and stock market returns is not always that strong.
The often widely divergent performance of the Chinese economy and stock market is a salutary example.
How a market is valued in the first place is a key consideration. Moreover, in rapidly developing countries, often the proceeds of economic growth fail to flow adequately to shareholders – particularly foreign ones.
Of the four economies, I am fairly optimistic about the immediate economic outlook for Mexico and Nigeria. But beware: that might not translate into large rises in share prices this year – or indeed in the near future. To make a mint you have to coin it.
The acronyms such as BRIC and MINT are of little value for these diverse developing and frontier markets, as Roger Bootle points out. They have also become tedious with time.
The best way to play them, in my opinion, is: 1) Try to buy cheaply after big shakeouts; 2) Look for relative strength which you can see by monitoring price charts for their indices; 3) Buy following clear breakouts from big (multiyear) trading ranges.Back to top