OEX Volatility Index (VIX) (weekly & daily) has pushed higher in the last three weeks, indicating some uncertainty and anxiety over the Fed¡¯s decision on whether to taper or persist with current policies for a little longer. VIX should move somewhat lower in the event of an unchanged policy.
Sugar ICE (weekly & daily) has had an exceptionally persistent decline over the last 10 weeks and today¡¯s downward dynamic to test the July low looks climactic. Watch for an upward dynamic to trigger a short-covering and bargain hunting rally.
LME metals are having a good month for a change. Note particularly rallies over the last two weeks for Aluminium, the weakest (weekly & daily); copper one of the strongest (weekly & daily); lead (weekly & daily); nickel (weekly & daily); tin, the early leader on producer cutbacks (weekly & daily), and zinc (weekly & daily). These highly cyclical laggards are often late runners in a tiring bull market, benefiting from production cutbacks, short covering and bargain hunting. The overall patterns look like Type-3 (ranging, time and size) base formations as taught at The Chart Seminar. Breaks in the progressions of lower rally highs by these metals would provide further evidence of recover. This should be reflected by mining shares, including BHP Billiton (weekly & daily) and Rio Tinto (weekly & daily). Rio has had the edge recently but BHP had a big upside key day reversal from the lower side of its range yesterday.Back to top