Turkey Set for Runoff as Erdogan Falls Just Short of Victory
Comment of the Day

May 15 2023

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Turkey Set for Runoff as Erdogan Falls Just Short of Victory

This article from Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section: 

Turkey will hold a runoff election, with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan just failing to secure enough votes for a first-round victory.

The 69-year-old, looking to extend his two decades in power, will face Kemal Kilicdaroglu, 74, in another vote on May 28 after doing better than polls predicted.

Turkish stocks and bonds dropped, while the cost of insuring the government’s debt against a default spiked, as the results wrong-footed investors betting on a quick end to Erodogan’s unconventional economic policies, which include keeping interest rates well below the level of inflation.

“This is a major disappointment to investors hoping for a win for opposition candidate Kilicdaroglu and the reversion to orthodox economic policy he promised,” said Hasnain Malik, a strategist at Tellimer in Dubai.

Erdogan won 49.5% of the votes, while Kilicdaroglu secured just under 45%, with nearly all the ballots counted, Turkey’s High Election Board said on Monday. Another contender, Sinan Ogan, received 5.2% and was eliminated from the race.

Eoin Treacy's view

Turkey has a population of 85 million and a median age of 33. It’s no longer a very young country and is stuck squarely in the middle income trap. Erdogan’s domestic policy of promoting Islamic nationalism and international policy of boosting the country’s regional footprint have gained geopolitical points but has also been expensive.

CPI inflation is down to 43.68% from a peak of 85% in late October. Even with the improving trend that has understandably taken a toll on the Lira which continues to trend lower.  
The iShares Turkey ETF posted an initial surge when inflation peaked but the uncertainty around the election is weighing on performance at present. Turkey is holding onto its democratic credentials by its fingernails and a peaceful run-off is to be hoped for. 

Back to top

You need to be logged in to comment.

New members registration