Jerome Powell Speaks With David Rubenstein
Comment of the Day

February 07 2023

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Jerome Powell Speaks With David Rubenstein

This summary from Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section: 

Powell says the labor market report from Friday “underscores the message” he sent last week, that there’s a significant road ahead to get inflation down. There’s an expectation that inflation can come down painlessly, but “that’s not the base case.”

Eoin Treacy's view

The primary conclusion investors have taken from Jerome Powell’s interview today is pain might be coming but rates will quickly adjust when it does. The volatility on the Nasdaq-100 showed the development of this conclusion with a 1% advance, drop back to flat and recovery to finish up 1%.
The Nasdaq-100 continues to extend its rebound and is holding the break above the 200-day MA. 12,000 is now a significant psychological area of potential support.
Meanwhile, Treasury yields continues to rebound. That is the exact opposite relationship between growth stocks and interest rates to what was evident in 2022. The only way the rationale that growth can outperform in a rising rate environment is either based on outsized productivity growth or high rates will not last.

That suggests either one is a true believer in the near-term promise of AI and it will rapidly provide cost savings to every portion of society or the Fed will soon be forced cut rates.
Nvidia’s recovery is gaining traction so investors are certainly betting along those lines.

AMD has also broken its downtrend. 

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