Email of the day 2
Comment of the Day

May 23 2017

Commentary by David Fuller

Email of the day 2

On India’s uptrend:

Is the following trend likely to reduce the regularity of 20% market corrections?

David Fuller's view

Thanks for your question and also the Bloomberg article.

Following Narendra Modi’s landslide victory in the May 2014 General Election India’s Mumbai Sensex Index has only experienced one significant correction of approximately 26%, falling throughout 2014 before bottoming with a decisive Type 1 of three endings as taught at The Chart Seminar in 1Q 2016. 

India remains an outstanding relative performer.  However, the article above confirms increased public participation, including many first time buyers.  This suggests that the market is becoming short-term overbought, increasing its susceptibility to a reaction.  Nevertheless, I do not think this will produce anything like another 20% plus correction, unless investors really do lose confidence in Wall Street, despite the prevalence of mostly benign indicators.

In terms of governance, is there a more capable and trustworthy head of state than Narendra Modi anywhere in the world today?  I don’t think so.  This is fortunate because governing and improving India’s vast democracy has to be the toughest leadership challenge. 

(See also: Three years of Modi government: India moves from ‘brain drain’ to ‘brain gain as over 1000 scientists return, from Financial Express)

While Narendra Modi is in charge, and he should win the 2019 General Election, I think India will remain among the top performing stock markets. 

Back to top

You need to be logged in to comment.

New members registration