How Theresa May Is Recruiting an Army of Hard Brexit Backers
Comment of the Day

May 16 2017

Commentary by David Fuller

How Theresa May Is Recruiting an Army of Hard Brexit Backers

Here is the opening of this revealing article from Bloomberg

U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May is packing her Conservative Party with an army of Euroskeptic candidates for next month’s election as she seeks reinforcements for her battle to deliver a hard Brexit.

Bloomberg News surveyed the views of the Tory candidates standing in 60 of the most winnable seats for May’s party and found a clear majority voted a year ago to pull Britain out of the European Union. Of the 52 candidates in this group -- whose views could be verified by public statements or interviews -- 34 backed Brexit last June, 17 wanted to stay in the EU and one abstained.

The almost two-to-one margin in favor of leaving the EU shows how the June 8 election could herald a dramatic shift in May’s parliamentary party, with more Brexit-supporting lawmakers in her team than ever.

This outcome would give May greater power at home to pursue a divorce that is focused on reclaiming control of lawmaking and immigration, rather than fostering trade. The analysis also damps speculation that May might soften her approach if she secures the crushing majority polls are predicting.

“The overall balance of Parliament looks like it will lean toward the harder side of Brexit than had May not called the election,” said Mujtaba Rahman, managing director at the Eurasia Group.

More lawmakers who backed Brexit early on would make it easier for May -- who only had a majority of 17 in the previous Parliament -- to pass legislation related to the split and secure approval of the final deal she negotiates. After becoming premier last July some of her own side challenged her Brexit strategy.

Bloomberg studied candidates in the 12 seats where a sitting Tory lawmaker stepped down and the 48 seats the Conservatives lost most narrowly in the 2015 election. In the latter, 27 candidates voted for Brexit, 13 against it and one couldn’t decide. The rest wouldn’t comment or couldn’t be reached.

Fresh Blood

The results suggest an influx of new Tory lawmakers who are more biased toward Brexit than either the country as whole, or the previous House of Commons.

Britain split 52 percent to 48 percent in last June’s referendum and an analysis by the ConservativeHome website at the time found 185 Tory lawmakers were Remainers while 128 were Leavers: a 56 percent versus 39 percent divide.

A YouGov poll released this week suggested 68 percent of the electorate now believes the government has a duty to deliver Brexit.

David Fuller's view

Theresa May has always indicated that she favoured a mutually beneficial Brexit.  However, unless it is a monumental bluff, EU leaders still want to ‘punish’ Britain.  If so, that would lead to a quick, hard Brexit by Theresa May.  This would cause some short-term confusion and uncertainty but benefit Britain over the medium to longer term.

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