How North Korea Managed to Defy Years of Sanctions
Comment of the Day

May 15 2017

Commentary by David Fuller

How North Korea Managed to Defy Years of Sanctions

DANDONG, China — As the end of the fashion season approached, and the suits and dresses arrived in her company’s warehouses here in the Chinese border town of Dandong, the accountant crammed about $100,000 into a backpack, then boarded a rickety train with several co-workers.

She asked to be identified only by her surname, Lang, given the sensitivity of their destination: North Korea.

After a six-hour journey, she recalled, they arrived at a factory where hundreds of women using high-end European machines sewed clothes with “Made in China” labels. Her boss handed the money to the North Korean manager, all of it in American bills as required.

Despite seven rounds of United Nations sanctions over the past 11 years, including a ban on “bulk cash” transfers, large avenues of trade remain open to North Korea, allowing it to earn foreign currency to sustain its economy and finance its program to build a nuclear weapon that can strike the United States.

Fraudulent labeling helps support its garment industry, which generated more than $500 million for the isolated nation last year, according to Chinese trade data.

North Korea earned an additional $1.1 billion selling coal to China last year using a loophole in the ban on such exports, and researchers say tens of thousands of North Koreans who work overseas as laborers are forced to send back as much as $250 million annually. Diplomats estimate the country makes $70 million more selling rights to harvest seafood from its waters.

China accounts for more than 80 percent of trade with North Korea, and the Trump administration is counting on Beijing to use that leverage to pressure it into giving up its nuclear arsenal. The Chinese government took a big step in February by announcing that it was suspending imports of coal from the country through the end of the year.

But China has a long record of shielding North Korea from more painful sanctions, because it is afraid of a regime collapse that could send refugees streaming across the border and leave it with a more hostile neighbor.

In addition, Beijing now has a sympathetic ear in South Korea, whose newly elected president, Moon Jae-in, echoes its view that sanctions alone will not be enough to persuade Pyongyang to abandon its nuclear program.

While North Korea remains impoverished and dependent on food aid, its economy appears to be growing, partly because of a limited embrace of market forces since its leader, Kim Jong-un, took power more than five years ago.

David Fuller's view

If (when?) North Korea is eventually reunited with South Korea, the reunification of Germany is probably an apt model.  In other words, we could expect ten to fifteen years of difficult transformation, before a united Korea emerged as an important superpower.   

Reunification would be best for Korea over the longer term.  A problem is that China still prefers the status quo, despite the increasing recklessness of Kim Jong Un. 

(See also: Political transitions in South Korea and Washington give Kim Jong Un opening, from USA Today)

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