North Korea State Media Warns of Nuclear Strike if Provoked as U.S. Warships Approach
Comment of the Day

April 11 2017

Commentary by David Fuller

North Korea State Media Warns of Nuclear Strike if Provoked as U.S. Warships Approach

North Korean state media on Tuesday warned of a nuclear attack on the United States at any sign of U.S. aggression as a U.S. Navy strike group steamed towards the western Pacific.

U.S. President Donald Trump, who has urged China to do more to rein in its impoverished neighbour, said in a Tweet North Korea was "looking for trouble" and the United States would "solve the problem" with or without China's help.

Tension has escalated sharply on the Korean peninsula with talk of military action by the United States gaining traction following its strikes last week against Syria and amid concerns the reclusive North may soon conduct a sixth nuclear test.

North Korea's official Rodong Sinmun newspaper said the country was prepared to respond to any aggression by the United States.

"Our revolutionary strong army is keenly watching every move by enemy elements with our nuclear sight focused on the U.S. invasionary bases not only in South Korea and the Pacific operation theatre but also in the U.S. mainland," it said.

South Korean acting President Hwang Kyo-ahn warned of "greater provocations" by North Korea and ordered the military to intensify monitoring and to ensure close communication with the United States.

"It is possible the North may wage greater provocations such as a nuclear test timed with various anniversaries including the Supreme People's Assembly," said Hwang, acting leader since former president Park Geun-hye was removed amid a graft scandal.

Trump said in a Tweet a trade deal between China and the United States would be "far better for them if they solved the North Korea problem".

"If China decides to help, that would be great," he said. "If not, we will solve the problem without them!"

Trump and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, met in Florida last week and Trump pressed Xi to do more to rein in North Korea.

The North convened a Supreme People's Assembly session on Tuesday, one of its twice-yearly sessions in which major appointments are announced and national policy goals are formally approved. It did not immediately release details.

But South Korean officials took pains to quell talk in social media of an impending security crisis or outbreak of war.

"We'd like to ask precaution so as not to get blinded by exaggerated assessment about the security situation on the Korean peninsula," Defence Ministry spokesman Moon Sang-kyun said.

Saturday is the 105th anniversary of the birth of Kim Il Sung, the country's founding father and grandfather of current ruler, Kim Jong Un.

A military parade is expected in the North's capital, Pyongyang, to mark the day. North Korea often also marks important anniversaries with tests of its nuclear or missile capabilities in breach of U.N. Security Council resolutions.

David Fuller's view

Is the world a marginally more dangerous place since the end of the 20th Century?

I think so for five reasons: 1) The global economy has been weaker in the 21st Century to date; 2) The aging and unhealthy President Boris Yeltsin resigned as President of Russia on 31st December 1999, and handed over presidential powers to Prime Minister Vladimir Putin; 3) Communist China has become a global superpower; 4) There was a dearth of Western geopolitical leadership over the last eight years which has emboldened rogue regimes; 5) The advance of technology and globalisation enable more countries to become nuclear powers. 

Enter President Donald Trump in a role he did not campaign for.  In terms of military policies, I think he will be much more like Ronald Reagan than Barrack Obama, assuming he can get the Congressional votes to support his bills.

In terms of sectors, this should continue to support defence shares, which I reviewed yesterday for the UK and France.  Perennial standouts in the tech sectors should continue to do well over the medium to longer term.  Precious metals are benefitting from global tension, as we see today, although they are vulnerable to an eventual rise in the US Dollar.

Meanwhile, the probability of a stock market correction within the next few months remains relatively high.  

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