Moodys Warns Scotland Exit Could Leave Country Facing Junk Rating
Comment of the Day

March 24 2017

Commentary by David Fuller

Moodys Warns Scotland Exit Could Leave Country Facing Junk Rating

Here is a brief section of this story from Investment Week:

Commenting on the potential for Scotland to become independent, Colin Ellis, chief credit officer for EMEA at Moody's, has warned the country would face "downward pressure" on its finances in the event of independence, according to The Times.

The warning comes as lower oil price, currently sitting at around $55 a barrel, have left Scotland facing a large budget deficit and worse off financially than before the previous referendum in September 2014. 

Back in 2014, when the oil price was above $100, an independent Scotland could have received a rating between A and Baa, placing it within the investment grade bracket.

However, Moody's Ellis said current circumstances could see Scotland's rating drop to Ba, a junk status (also known as sub-investment grade), which would place it on a par with Azerbaijan and Guatemala.

David Fuller's view

Governance is Everything has long been a mantra at this service.  Unfortunately for Scotland, it has the worst governance in the UK, evidenced by everything from its weak economic performance, rising debt and deteriorating educational system, documented in earlier articles posted on this site. 

That will eventually change through the democratic process, although not as quickly as it might with stronger opposition.

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