Intel Boss on the Doubling of Computer Power Every Two Years
Comment of the Day

January 05 2017

Commentary by David Fuller

Intel Boss on the Doubling of Computer Power Every Two Years

Intel founder Gordon Moore declared half a century ago that computer power would roughly double every two years as the silicon chips powering them developed.

The maxim, which became known as Moore’s law, directed technology companies for five decades before reaching a crunch point last year. Physicists and technology giants alike said transistors had reached a point where it was no longer economically viable to make them smaller, bringing about the end of the law.

But Intel’s chief executive Brian Krzanich has put an end to such fears with news the company will release a 10 nanometre chip in 2017. The tiny chip will be cheaper than its predecessor, Intel said, keeping Moore’s law alive.

"I've heard the death of Moore's law more times than anything else in my 34-year career and I'm here today to really show you and tell you that Moore's law is alive and well and flourishing," Krzanich said.

The news came as Intel opened the doors on its virtual reality project, which includes applications for the technology, content production and a headset. For Krzanich, VR is one of the most exciting uses of the faster processor coming this year.

“Imagine in your living room being able to walk around the next hotel you’re going to visit, or visiting the event you’re going to,” said Krzanich in a demonstration of the VR uses Intel is working on at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas.

Some of the applications Intel is developing include live sports games in VR and monitoring remote areas, such as solar panel farms, through a live 360 video stream from a drone and a VR headset.

The chipmaker has teamed up with La Liga to fit three stadiums with 360-degree cameras that will stream to 38 channels this year.

“From the comfort of your home you could be transported to your favourite seat,” said Krzanich. “This is the future of how you’ll view sports. You’ll have the opportunity to go to games you’ve never been to before.”

David Fuller's view

I do not assume that silicon chips will always be used for the more complex challenges, because the technology for transistors is still in its infancy, relative to future developments.  We live in an exciting era of accelerating technological innovation, which will not end of its own accord.

Technology remains an extraordinarily exciting and profitable sector.  However, changes are so rapid that a once rising star can quickly fall into obsolescence, eventually leading to bankruptcy.   Few tech companies are able to maintain a dominant position beyond a few years, although survivors have the resources to reinvent themselves.

Intel has endured a torrid period since its share collapsed in 2000.  However, this monthly chart pattern over 20 years shows a very large rounding base formation.  Activity since mid-2014 has the characteristics of the first step above the base, as taught at The Chart Seminar.  Intel has been out of favour for so long that an upside breakout could support a stronger uptrend. Intel currently trades at an estimated p/e of 13.67 and yields 2.86%.  Here is a somewhat longer description from Bloomberg which I managed to capture, although there is a tiny overlap in some of the five slides.

Here is a PDF of The Telegraph’s article.

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