Goldman Says Trump Presidency Will Benefit Stocks in Almost Every Sector
Comment of the Day

November 30 2016

Commentary by David Fuller

Goldman Says Trump Presidency Will Benefit Stocks in Almost Every Sector

Here is the opening of this topical article from Bloomberg:

After years of slowing earnings growth and little in the way of excitement for many Wall Street analysts, many are now hopeful that President-elect Donald Trump will finally make things interesting.

When collating data for the Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Analyst Index — a proprietary measure of growth across different sectors of the S&P 500 — the firm included a question this month on what the election of Donald Trump will mean for the industries covered by those surveyed. Turns out, they are rather optimistic. 

"This month, we asked analysts to comment on how the results of the U.S. election will affect companies in their respective sectors," the team led by Avisha Thakkar writes in the new note. "While their responses suggest that there is still uncertainty about the sector-level impact, the majority of sectors are anticipating favorable effects," they say, adding that expectations of lower tax rates and economic stimulus are among key reasons for the favorable outlook.

Goldman certainly isn't the first to hail the potential benefits of a Trump presidency. Dubravko Lakos-Bujas and Marko Kolanovic, quantitative analysts at JPMorgan Chase and Co., also wrote that many of Trump's policies would be "pro-growth," even while uncertainty about specifics remains high.

They wrote this week that if the campaign promises that have the potential to stimulate growth get implemented, the S&P 500 could see as much as $20 in additional earnings-per-share growth over the next few years. 

David Fuller's view

The US stock market has been very enthusiastic about President-elect Trump’s stimulative programme, discounting a considerable amount of good news well before he takes the Oath of Office and becomes president on 20th January.  Some consolidation of these gains is likely before that date.

The most likely headwinds for Wall Street are an appreciating US Dollar Index and another surge in US 10-year Treasury Bond yields.  However, seasonal factors remain favourable through April 2017.  

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