Clinton 3 Points Ahead of Trump in Final Bloomberg National Poll
Comment of the Day

November 07 2016

Commentary by David Fuller

Clinton 3 Points Ahead of Trump in Final Bloomberg National Poll

Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump by three percentage points among likely voters nationally, the latest sign that her campaign's painstaking focus on women, Latinos and blacks could help propel her to the White House.

The final Bloomberg Politics national poll before Tuesday’s election has Clinton ahead of Trump, 44 percent to 41 percent, when third-party candidates are included. In a two-way contest, she's also up by three points.

Interviews were conducted Friday evening through Sunday afternoon, before FBI Director James Comey announced his decision that Clinton shouldn’t face criminal charges related to use of a personal e-mail server as secretary of state.

Comey’s initial letter informing Congress—11 days before the election—that the FBI was conducting a review of newly discovered e-mails breathed new life into Trump’s candidacy at a time most polls showed Clinton with a bigger lead. The FBI's decision Sunday brings a positive burst of news for Clinton in the campaign’s critical home stretch.

The tightness of the race highlights the importance of turnout for both sides, as the final wave of campaign events, door-knocking, e-mailing, and phone-calling comes to a close.

More than a third of likely voters, 37 percent, say they’ve already voted and Clinton is leading Trump with that group, 46 percent to 38 percent.

The results offer a national snapshot of the race, but they fail to reflect the reality of the state-by-state pursuit of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House. Trump has strong support in the South, the survey shows, while Clinton has the advantage in the Northeast, Midwest and West.

“The poll reflects a tight race, for sure, but what is so striking is the sour mood of the electorate,” said pollster J. Ann Selzer, who oversaw the survey. “Looking forward, they see scandals aplenty and sizable segments of each side vow to keep fighting even after all the votes are counted.”

David Fuller's view

I think serious people everywhere will be relieved to see the end of what is certainly the most sordid US Presidential Election in living memory. I am assuming that Clinton will win, not because she is popular, but because Trump is a wild card, to put it politely.  Additionally, Clinton appeals to a much wider demographic base, including women who have the most votes in this election.  Wall Street’s rally today undoubtedly includes a considerable amount of short covering in anticipation of a Clinton victory.

The one important quality which Clinton has in spades is experience.  The far greater quality which I hopes she will demonstrate is wisdom.  She will need it given this divisive election and the challenges which lie ahead, in terms of reuniting the country and leading democratic nations.    

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