Fixing American Infrastructure
Comment of the Day

October 25 2016

Commentary by David Fuller

Fixing American Infrastructure

Here is the opening of a Hillary Clinton fund raising program:

In my first 100 days as president, I will work with both parties to pass a comprehensive plan to create the next generation of good jobs. Now the heart of my plan will be the biggest investment in American infrastructure in decades, including establishing an infrastructure bank that will bring private sector dollars off the sidelines and put them to work there. 

In America, we build great things together—from the transcontinental railroad to the interstate highway system to the Hoover Dam. But today, our investments in infrastructure are roughly half what they were 35 years ago. That’s why Hillary Clinton has announced a $275 billion, five-year plan to rebuild our infrastructure—and put Americans to work in the process. She’ll work to pass her infrastructure plan in her first 100 days of office, as part of a comprehensive agenda to create the next generation of good-paying jobs.

David Fuller's view

That is my bold highlight above focussing on the $275 billion, five-year plan to rebuild USA infrastructure.  This is a very sensible idea and about time.  It should also have bipartisan support, even if Democrats do not control Congress following the election. 

Where the USA leads with a sensible policy many other countries eventually follow.  Or did the UK actually lead with the decision to expand Heathrow Airport?  Either way, who cares – the important point is that we can expect some additional infrastructure expansion in other countries over the next two years.  This should help to jumpstart a pickup in GDP growth.  

Interestingly, stock markets are coming out of the May through October period of seasonal underperformance without having seen much damage for the most part.  November through April are stronger on average, not least during an election year for the USA. 

We’ll see, to coin a phrase but I would be surprised not to see firmness as Hillary Clinton wins the US Presidential Election, if only a relief rally.  Mrs Clinton may not be popular but she and her husband are the most politically experienced couple to ever enter the White House.

There may be plenty for investors to worry about (and thus it always was) but the US election will no longer be a wildcard factor.  Stock markets have previously been weak-kneed at the prospect of a US rate hike but December’s 25-basis points hike in the Federal Funds rate is widely discounted and a sign of modest recovery.  It may only be a problem if the US Treasury and Federal Reserve are unable to keep the Dollar Index in its current range.  

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