Sweden Holds Out Olive Branch to Brexit Britain
Comment of the Day

October 24 2016

Commentary by David Fuller

Sweden Holds Out Olive Branch to Brexit Britain

Here is the opening and another brief section of this timely article by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard for The Telegraph:

Sweden has warned that it would be a serious mistake to chastise Britain for voting to leave the EU, appealing instead for an amicable settlement to minimise damage for both sides.

“The softer the Brexit, the better. We’re an open country and we are in favour of free trade, and we want to see a solution that is as beneficial as possible for everybody,” said Magdalena Andersson, the Swedish finance minister.

The olive branch from Stockholm reflects the shared view of the Nordic bloc that there is nothing to be gained from a fractious divorce between Britain and the EU. 

“I think our basic instincts are the same. We’ve heard some voices from the Continent that now is the time to punish the British, whereas our instinct instead is that this is the new situation and we have to make the best of it. We have to see what is good for jobs and growth,” she told the Daily Telegraph on a trip to London.

The EU itself needs to tread with care since there are large eurosceptic movements in Sweden, Denmark, and Finland. A hard-line stance that ignored the concerns of the Scandinavian bloc would risk opening fresh rifts within an already badly-fractured Union.

The comments came as Swedish companies start to feel the chilling effect of the referendum campaign in Britain and the sharp fall in sterling. Data released this week show that Swedish exports to Britain are in free-fall, with a drop of 19pc over the period from January to July compared to the same period a year ago.

And:

 “Sentiments have calmed down a bit during the last few months, but there can be no cherry picking. You can’t just pick the cherries you like,” she said.

The warnings on cherry-picking are part of the joint script agreed by the EU-27 states but it is unclear what this mantra means in practice. Britain has a complex set of diplomatic, defence, and security ties that go far beyond the one-dimensional issue of the single market. It is ultimately implausible to imagine that Britain could be treated like any other ‘third country’ in trade talks, as if it were in Latin America or Africa.

David Fuller's view

The ‘no cherry picking’ rhetoric is now a familiar EU refrain, but it makes no economic sense, other than to warn the other 27 countries not to follow the UK’s lead. 

It won’t work, at least not if the EU wishes to maintain its significant trade links with the UK, in addition to diplomatic, defence and security ties mentioned by AEP.

For these reasons I maintain that the UK should avoid the farrago of endless negotiations over Brexit.  There is a view that the UK should hang around and see who emerges from next year’s French and German elections.  I disagree because newly elected EU leaders are likely to be even more implacable, not least because they will be negotiating on the basis of what they have to lose.  However, once the UK has left, EU leaders will be negotiating on the basis of what they would like to regain – free trade with the UK, for instance.      

Here is a PDF of AEP's article.

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