My personal portfolio
Comment of the Day

September 01 2016

Commentary by David Fuller

My personal portfolio

A trade rolled forward

David Fuller's view

Carelessly, I took a loss on my latest silver trades (weekly & daily), buying too soon after the July highs, in hope that we would have only a shallow consolidation.  I should have paid more attention to the weekly chart above because silver was quite overextended relative to its MA.  Purchases of the September contract at $20.36 on 10/08, $20.188 on 14/07, $19.415 on 21/07 and $18.50 on 25/08 expired at $18.753 on 29th August.  These were on automatic rollover so December contracts were simultaneously purchased on 29th August at $18.868.  

Since early July we have seen further rotations in global market sectors.  For instance, there have been corrections in many commodities following their leading recoveries during the first six months of this year.  I think these corrections are mostly over and you will see some technical evidence in charts shown by Eoin below.  Many commodities now have short-term oversold conditions, having returned to their rising 200-day (40-week) moving averages.  They should continue to benefit from some earlier supply reductions and gradually increasing demand, from China to the USA.      

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