Italy Wants the EU to Change Tack on Growth and Security
Comment of the Day

August 18 2016

Commentary by David Fuller

Italy Wants the EU to Change Tack on Growth and Security

Here is the opening on this interesting report from Bloomberg:

Italy is seeking an expansionary push for growth in the European Union as the bloc forges a new course after the U.K. voted to leave, Prime Minister Matteo Renzi’s junior minister for European affairs said.

Undersecretary Sandro Gozi, speaking ahead of an Aug. 22 informal meeting of Renzi, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande, called for a wide-ranging agreement to boost cooperation on security and defense as well as an expansionary economic policy to boost European growth.

“We need to increase and reinforce EU action on security and defense, including rapidly launching the European policing of its external borders,” Gozi said in a telephone interview. “Also as a reply to the terrorist threat, some EU countries should be able to work on joint initiatives in the security, policing or military fields if they wish to do so.”

In the wake of the Brexit referendum, and with the Italian economy unexpectedly stalling in the second quarter, Renzi has stepped up calls for a departure from what his government sees as German-inspired austerity policies. Renzi is preparing for a referendum on constitutional reform, expected to take place in November, on which he has staked his political future.

David Fuller's view

I think Renze will get what he wants from France and also Germany, albeit reluctantly.  Following Brexit, Italy is now the EU’s third largest economy and it is in trouble, as you can see from this weekly 10-year chart.  If Renzi loses his referendum on constitutional reform in November, the EU could face an even bigger problem than Brexit because other Southern European countries are similarly disillusioned with the Euro. 

Meanwhile, there are plenty of successful, hard working Italians in London and I have yet to meet one who wants Italy to remain in the EU.  

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