Will Osborne Success Remain Clouded By His Obsession With Cutting the Deficit?
Comment of the Day

July 18 2016

Commentary by David Fuller

Will Osborne Success Remain Clouded By His Obsession With Cutting the Deficit?

Here is the opening of this topical column by Roger Bootle, published by The Telegraph:

I hadn’t expected to be assessing George Osborne’s legacy quite so soon. But, to put it mildly, the past week has been full of surprises. To give him his due, Mr Osborne began with a pretty awful inheritance. The economy had been sent into the worst recession since the 1930s by the financial crash and subsequent global meltdown.

Although the previous Labour government had announced plans to reduce the deficit, when Mr Osborne took over as chancellor in 2010, it was running at over 10pc of GDP. Moreover, there was no sign of economic recovery on the horizon.

During his six years in office, the deficit has come down to 4pc of GDP, the economy has recovered and 2.4m jobs have been created. All in all, that is a pretty robust achievement.

Over and above this, Mr Osborne made serious strides in reducing corporation tax. Moreover, when a shortage of funds precluded large immediate reductions, he made some impact by pre-announcing future reductions. He even continued with this policy in his last few days as chancellor after the Brexit vote suggested the corporate sector might need some reassurance.

But there was no equivalent achievement on personal taxation. Admittedly, he took many low earners out of tax altogether, but this was paid for by increased taxes on people with higher incomes. And although he reduced the top 50p rate of tax to 45p, Mr Osborne continued with this 45p rate which, for a Conservative chancellor, should be an abomination.

More importantly, he did nothing to hold out hope for much lower personal taxation across the board, and nothing to simplify the tax system, nor to facilitate the long-overdue fusing of income tax and national insurance. If a chancellor is serious about doing the latter, he has to have a long-term plan for personal tax, and not just for the deficit.

Overall, despite his achievements on the deficit and corporate tax, I doubt whether history will deliver a particularly favourable judgement on Mr Osborne. All chancellors face a mixture of duties, temptations and distractions. The role naturally involves quite a bit of theatre and is inherently deeply political. Yet the great chancellors have concentrated on the detailed slog and the agenda for reform. The records of four successful Conservative chancellors – Howe, Lawson, Lamont and Clarke – provide a guide and a yardstick.

The greatest defect of Mr Osborne’s chancellorship was his excessive involvement in politics and his devotion to issues concerning the management of the government and his own future.

David Fuller's view

Here is a PDF of Roger Bootle’s column.

I thought George Osborne was an outstanding Chancellor until the Brexit debate, when he allowed his personal ambition turn him into a bullying alarmist.  His wild forecasts have done the economy no favours in the short to medium term and cost him his political career. 

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