Jobs Report Gives Yellen Only Half of What Fed Chair Wants
Comment of the Day

April 01 2016

Commentary by David Fuller

Jobs Report Gives Yellen Only Half of What Fed Chair Wants

A slowly improving economy is pulling discouraged Americans into the workforce, although some are having to settle for part-time jobs for now.

That’s the message from the March employment report issued by the Labor Department Friday in Washington. Payrolls grew by 215,000 workers last month following a gain of 245,000 in February, according to employers the government surveyed. The separate poll of households showed the jobless rate ticked up to 5 percent from 4.9 percent as people streamed into the labor force looking for work, and not all were successful.

The gain in hiring shows businesses remain confident in U.S. prospects even amid the slowdown in global growth and turmoil in financial markets that Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen this week said prompted policy makers to signal a slower pace of rate hikes in 2016. The gradual approach in tightening monetary policy to allow the labor market to heat up further was reinforced by readings showing the world’s largest economy still wasn’t strong enough to provide more full-time work.

“This makes Yellen look smart,” said Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in New York. “People are getting more confident in the labor market, and more people are coming back in.” At the same time, the higher number of Americans working part-time for economic reasons shows there’s still slack in the economy, “so it’s kind of ammo for the go-slow crew.”

David Fuller's view

Yellen is in charge and she is erring on the side of caution.  This is sensible and it may also help the Fed keep the Dollar Index from rising anytime soon.  That would support the US economy and US corporate profits, which have been too soft for comfort in recent quarters.

See also: Manufacturing in U.S. Expands for First Time in Seven Months.

OK, it is only one month’s data but very welcome none the less because it has checked what had been a worrying trend.  Moreover, the Institute for Supply Management’s Index climbed to 51.8 from 49.5 in February; 50 is the dividing line between growth and contraction.  This has clearly contributed to Wall Street’s recovery today.     

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