Merkel Throws Political Muscle Behind Deal to Avoid Brexit
Comment of the Day

February 17 2016

Commentary by David Fuller

Merkel Throws Political Muscle Behind Deal to Avoid Brexit

Here is the opening of this topical article from Bloomberg:

German Chancellor Angela Merkel threw her political muscle behind the push for a deal to keep the U.K. in the European Union as diplomats worked to bridge the remaining differences between its members.

EU President Donald Tusk will send final proposed legal texts on the U.K.’s renegotiation to national capitals late on Wednesday before the bloc’s leaders gather for a summit on Brussels the next day, a European official told reporters. Incorporating the deal into EU treaties, how to pull a so-called emergency brake on migration and the duration of a social-benefit safeguard are among the outstanding issues, the official said.

“We Europeans are called upon to do our level best to enable the British government to marshal convincing arguments for the U.K. to stay in the European Union,” Merkel said during a speech to the lower house of parliament in Berlin. “Many points here are about wishes which are understandable and that one is entitled to”

The German chancellor’s public endorsement looked to be swaying doubters toward a compromise deal that could pave the way for Britain to vote on whether to remain part of the EU as early as June. Merkel told Christian Democrat lawmakers in Berlin Tuesday that she’ll do everything possible to keep the U.K. in the EU, according to a party official who attended the closed-door meeting.

“The impression we have at that moment is that no government will block this agreement,” Spain’s Foreign Minister Jose Manuel Garcia-Margallo told lawmakers in Madrid Wednesday, citing intel from a deputy who held talks with his EU counterparts Tuesday. “We’re still seeking to soften some elements” of the text, he added.

David Fuller's view

Well well!  I credit Cameron for the thankless task of glad-handing every EU politician who would meet with him in recent months, obviously not with cap in hand but pointing out that the UK public could easily vote to leave the EU. 

Finally, this reality check has led to a reassessment within Europe.  Its grand plan is not working.  The EU has been looking increasingly like a failed political project.  The potential loss of its second largest and most international state, which also has the strongest economy as present, could be a fatal blow for the EU. 

It may be too late to save the EU, given its political crises, lack of democracy and increasingly bitter relations within the single currency, but that is not David Cameron’s fault.  He is unquestionably less popular with a large proportion of the UK’s Conservative Party for trying to work with Europe.  However, the British Prime Minister has shown that he is far from being just a fair weather friend.

Moreover, if the UK now votes to stay within the EU, as I suspect it will, this will remove uncertainty in the region.  More importantly, leading democracies starting with the US will be relieved, as will most multinational companies with a presence in Europe.  The UK will remain a strong voice on the international scene, partly due to its links with Europe. 

Conservatives who want the UK to leave the EU will not be happy with the terms Cameron is negotiating.  However, this is finally a work in progress and many other EU states will move to similarly regain more control over their countries’ policies.  The challenge for the EU is to move away from ever closer union and towards the free-trade alliance of independent nations which many European countries now favour.    

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