East European Economies Boom as Region Bucks Global GDP Slowdown
Comment of the Day

February 12 2016

Commentary by David Fuller

East European Economies Boom as Region Bucks Global GDP Slowdown

Here is the opening of this encouraging article from Bloomberg:

Eastern Europe’s economic expansion, led by car manufacturing and rising domestic demand, is helping the region buck a global growth slowdown fueled by the decline of commodity prices and market turmoil.

Euro member Slovakia led the region with a 4.2 percent annual gain in gross domestic product last quarter, the fastest pace in five years. Poland’s GDP rose 3.9 percent, followed by Romania with 3.7 percent, Hungary with 3.2 percent and Bulgaria with 3.1 percent, according to preliminary estimates from national statistics offices on Friday. The Czech Republic, which publishes its GDP data on Feb. 16, may top its neighbors with 4.5 percent, according to the median estimate of 12 economists in a Bloomberg survey.

“These serve as a timely reminder that not all parts of the emerging world are shrouded in gloom,” William Jackson, a London-based analyst at Capital Economics Ltd., said in an e-mailed report. “Households have benefited from the windfall from lower oil prices, improving labor market conditions and more accommodative monetary and fiscal policy.”

David Fuller's view

Charts show the way, as you can see from these national indices for Slovakia, particularly strong, as is HungaryPoland is outperforming many Western European countries, as is RomaniaBulgaria remains weak but may be losing downward momentum; Czech Republic is testing its 2011, 2012 and 2013 lows.

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