Cameron to Campaign Against Brexit as Welfare Deal Offered
Comment of the Day

February 02 2016

Commentary by David Fuller

Cameron to Campaign Against Brexit as Welfare Deal Offered

Here is the opening of this topical report from Bloomberg:

British Prime Minister David Cameron said he’s ready to campaign to keep the U.K. in the European Union after its president, Donald Tusk, issued a draft proposal that includes a way to restrict the payment of benefits to foreign workers.

As well as offering a four-year “emergency brake” on welfare for new migrants from the EU, Tusk’s plan sets out safeguards to shield the U.K. financial system from interference by euro-area regulators and more powers for national parliaments.

Cameron needs to persuade a skeptical British public he’s fought hard and won significant concessions as he prepares for a referendum on whether the U.K. should remain in the EU or leave -- a so-called Brexit. At the same time, he has to keep the bloc’s other 27 leaders on side, because they still have to approve Tusk’s plan at a summit in Brussels this month. That would pave the way for a popular vote as early as June.

“If I could get these terms for British membership, I sure would opt in to membership of the EU,” Cameron said in a speech at a plant in Chippenham, western England, run by German engineering giant Siemens AG, symbolizing the degree to which the U.K.’s economy is bound up with the rest of the bloc. “Strong, determined, patient negotiation has achieved a good outcome for Britain.”

David Fuller's view

By chance I saw David Cameron’s entire press conference following his last meeting with the European Union’s president, Donald Tusk earlier today.  It was presented in full on the BBC and other networks may have carried it as well, although I have only found brief snippets of this press conference on the www. 

I was pleasantly surprised by what Cameron has achieved to date.  Nothing has been ratified and signed at this stage but the basis for an acceptable agreement is within reach.   In my opinion it would be madness of the EU not to accept most of the reasonable, sensible terms required by the UK.  Denmark has already said it would like a similar agreement and several other EU countries are likely to follow this lead.  That was not on the EU’s agenda but so be it.  If individual countries have more autonomy that could be the salvation of the EU.

The EU certainly needs the UK, which has the world’s 5th largest economy and is second only to Germany within the EU.  The UK has the EU’s only truly international financial centre.  The EU needs the UK’s international clout. 

However, the UK will be more important in the eyes of the USA and other global powers if it remains within the EU.  The UK has now demonstrated that it can influence EU policies.  That door is likely to remain open because the EU’s global influence will diminish if it is not a successful economic power.      

(See also: Boost for David Cameron as Theresa May claims ‘basis for a deal’ with EU, by Press Association)

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