Putin Does Not Mind the Fall in Oil
Comment of the Day

November 26 2015

Commentary by David Fuller

Putin Does Not Mind the Fall in Oil

Here is the concluding portion of this informative column by Leonid Bershidsky for Bloomberg:

 

The answer probably is related to Russia's handling of the oil slump. It is the champion in currency depreciation among oil-exporting peers, and only Iran will experience higher inflation this year, according to the IMF. The government has allowed the ruble to slide freely instead of drawing down international reserves -- something other oil exporters have been reluctant to do, seeking to lessen the economic pain. President Vladimir Putin, however, was unconcerned about that: wars in Ukraine and now in Syria, and a propaganda machine running full steam, have kept his approval ratings high.

Yet making Russians pay has resulted in plummeting domestic demand. That pessimism, in turn, led to disinvestment. Retail volume and investments are still in decline, though the recession appears to be bottoming out as the economy begins growing, as measured in month-on-month terms. Putin's government has done nothing to relax its iron grip on business or eradicate high-level corruption. It hasn't even pretended to be more welcoming to investors: The rhetoric coming out of the Kremlin is mainly grim survival and hostility.

Oil-exporting countries that are doing better than Russia fall into three groups. The first includes highly diversified economies such as Malaysia or Canada. Russia could have worked harder on diversification while oil was expensive, but it missed the chance. Another group includes countries such as Norway, United Arab Emirates and Qatar, with huge foreign reserves and negative net debt positions -- meaning they are owed a lot of money. Russia had a chance to do that, too, but only saved up enough to last a couple of years at the current oil price -- which explains why it would rather let the ruble devalue indefinitely than use the reserves to defend the currency. Members of the third group -- Bolivia, Azerbaijan and some others -- have tried to soften the blow while making their financial situation more precarious and hoping for a price recovery. Russia could have done that, too, but it wouldn't have been prudent given Putin's sense that he was defending his country against a hostile West.

Some oil exporters -- Venezuela and Nigeria, for example -- are inept when it comes to economic policy. That isn't the case with Russia: It just has a leader who doesn't prioritize the economy or care too much about living standards as long as the population is enthusiastic about his quest for a bigger geopolitical role. Russia is unique among oil exporters as a nation that is being milked for the sake of one man's grand vision. If oil prices go up, the vision will be more lavishly funded.

David Fuller's view

What an indictment, from a very intelligent and successful Russian, who obviously cannot return to his country while Putin and his crew are in charge.    

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