Argentina Elects Pro-Business President; Big Change Expected
Comment of the Day

November 23 2015

Commentary by David Fuller

Argentina Elects Pro-Business President; Big Change Expected

Here are the opening two paragraphs and a portion of the latter section of this topical report from Bloomberg:

Argentina voted for deep change on Sunday, electing the center-right opposition leader Mauricio Macri to be president in an end to 12 years of leftist populism, setting the stage for economic liberalization, a warming of relations with the U.S. and political reverberations across Latin America.

Macri won 51.4 percent of the vote against 48.6 percent for the ruling party’s Daniel Scioli, the National Electoral Council said, with more than 99 percent of ballots counted. At Macri’s headquarters late Sunday, his supporters danced and cheered for "Macri Presidente,” as he told them “a wonderful new stage begins for Argentina.”

And:

“This is a sea change not only for Argentina, but possibly for the region more broadly,” Alejo Czerwonko, a strategist at UBS Wealth Management, said in an e-mailed response to questions. “Macri’s victory could foreshadow a shift in favor of market-friendly and reform-oriented politicians in the region.”

Scioli and his supporters have warned that Macri’s policies, which they dismiss as "savage capitalism," will erode vital social welfare programs on which the poor depend and create an economy that caters to the rich. Macri will govern with a minority in both houses of Congress, although he is bolstered by the surprise capture of Buenos Aires province in last month’s election.

Many people voted for change after more than a decade of rule by President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner and her late husband. Scioli had stressed the achievements of Fernandez’s government, citing unemployment below 6 percent and low debt levels. Macri said poverty levels were rising again and that the government was doctoring the figures.

"The government is constantly saying we live in paradise," said Santiago Canedo, 28, a law student who voted for Macri. "They say one thing and then do the next. I’m optimistic that things will change."

Under Fernandez and her deceased husband Nestor Kirchner, Argentina has stood shoulder-to-shoulder with other leftists in the region, including the Castro brothers in Cuba, Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela and Rafael Correa in Ecuador. Macri calls his approach the opposite of Venezuela’s "21st century socialism": "21st century development." He reiterated Monday that he wants Venezuela ousted from the Mercosur trade bloc over its anti-democratic policies and human rights abuses.

David Fuller's view

This is definitely a sea change for Argentina, after the latest decade of extreme leftwing Peronist rule, noted for its inefficiencies, corruption and the permanent underclass which it has perpetuated. 

Mauricio Macri’s government faces plenty of challenges, with a minority in both houses of Congress, desperately low commodity prices in need of recoveries, and the fact that no non-Peronist government has lasted a full term. 

Nevertheless, Macri’s government deserves international support at this stage.  Should highly cyclical commodity prices recover over the next two years, as we anticipate; Argentina could be an opportunity for investors.  Tactically, I would not rush into Argentina’s stock market, as there will most likely be budget cuts following the new government’s appraisal of the economy, and a free-market devaluation of the peso.      

(See also Eoin’s comments below, and also: Argentina Fever Is Back for Investors Who’ve Waited 14 Years)

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