France Signals EU Treaty Change to Avert Brexit, Warns On Euro Survival
Comment of the Day

September 25 2015

Commentary by David Fuller

France Signals EU Treaty Change to Avert Brexit, Warns On Euro Survival

France has opened the door to full-blown treaty changes in a bid to keep Britain in the EU, warning that it would be grave mistake to disregard the legitimate demands of London.

Emmanuel Macron, the French economy minister, said creative ways can be found to amend the EU treaties and stop a European "Brexit" crisis from spinning out of control.

“We shouldn’t turn a treaty change into something traumatic or taboo,” he said, speaking in London on a visit to promote France’s "industrial renaissance".

“We mustn’t close the door to the British if what they are demanding from other member states is acceptable,” he said.

Mr Macron said it is not beyond the wit of man to craft a “win-win deal” that addresses Britain’s worries about the status of the non-euro members, increasingly untenable as the core countries press ahead with ever closer integration.

The comments came a day after French president Francois Hollande met David Cameron for a brain-storming session at Chequers. There appears to be a coordinated move by Paris to defuse an unnecessary clash with Britain.

Mr Macron said changes to the UK’s membership terms could be lumped together with euro reform in a broader EU accord, giving Mr Cameron the coveted imprimatur of full treaty change.

“The first step is for the British government to clarify its requirements. The question is: ‘What exactly do you want?’” he said.

France seems determined to keep Britain in the EU, not least because the two countries are working tightly together in foreign policy and defence. Nobody wants an avoidable fight with the UK when eastern Europe is rebelling over migrants and the EU itself faces an existential crisis.

Yet there are limits to French appeasement. “An a la carte Europe is not feasible. It would progressively kill the European idea,” he said.

Mr Macron had even tougher words for Germany, warning that the eurozone will disintegrate in a storm of populist revolt unless Berlin drops its vehement opposition to fiscal union and large transfers to the poorer regions.

The former Rothschild banker said the currency bloc is fundamentally unworkable without a joint budget to back it up and will leave debt-stricken countries on the periphery in permanent trouble.

“If we don’t move forward, we are deciding the dismantling of the eurozone. We have to choose: is it a fixed exchange system or a monetary union?” he said.

David Fuller's view

Here is a PDF of Ambrose Evans-Pritchard’s article.

 

We are finally seeing a more open and nationwide discussion of not only the EU’s objectives but also of the UK’s position within Europe.  Never mind that this is a belated crisis response and that the EU remains in a period of seemingly perpetual crisis.  These problems are finally concentrating minds and people are no longer afraid to speak out. 

The EU no longer appears to be on a full-speed-ahead move towards fiscal union to shore up its faltering monetary union.  There are too many divided opinions, among and also within member states, which is hardly surprising given their very different histories over hundreds of years. 

The UK, which fortunately avoided the Euro trap, is finally in the process of turning against increasing control from Brussels, which we certainly never voted for.  Instead, we entered the Common Market in 1973, prior to voting in the UK’s Referendum of 1975 to accept membership of the European Economic Community (EEC).   

Needless to say, the EEC became steadily less democratic.  The Euro, introduced on 1st January 1999 without the politically unacceptable fiscal union, has predictably been a failure by any measure of economic performance relative to other developed economic regions.   

The EU managed to hold onto Greece, now a vassal state, but only because the Socialist Syriza government lacked the knowhow and political will to leave the single currency.

The EU does not want to retain poor, struggling Greece, but lose the UK in our ‘In-Out’ Referendum, likely to be held before 2017.  Consequently, EU officials and now French Economic Minister Emmanuel Macron are talking about measures that would presumably grant the UK more autonomy if it remains within the EU.  

That is constructive and a lot depends on what terms Prime Minister David Cameron will be negotiating for.  Currently, bookmakers’ odds show that the UK will vote to stay within the EU.  However, these odds can be volatile.  Personally, having voted in favour of the UK joining the EEC in 1975, I like the cultural diversity of Europe.  However, I preferred the EEC to the EU and I would definitely like to see more independence for the UK.     

 

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