Have Conditions for Fed Rate Hike Liftoff Been Met?
Comment of the Day

August 19 2015

Commentary by David Fuller

Have Conditions for Fed Rate Hike Liftoff Been Met?

David Fuller's view

In a brief answer to the headline question: only partially in my opinion. 

The good news is that job creation has continued, despite layoffs in the shale oil sector.  However, the US economy is only slightly firmer against a background of slow global GDP growth.  Consequently the Fed may be undecided at this stage, 39 days before the September decision on rates is announced.  

Nevertheless, I think the Fed would like to raise rates at least twice before the US Presidential Election cycle is in full swing.  Based on what we know now, I hope the Fed does raise rates by 25 basis points during its two-day FOMC meeting on September 16 & 17, as this would end more uncertainty than it creates.  Also, US services inflation is edging higher although the same cannot be said for goods inflation which remains soft globally.  Fed concerns over the strong Dollar Index, which remain a headwind for the US economy, could be dealt with by simultaneously selling the currency, surreptitiously of course.

(See also: Fed’s Signals Mixed on Rate Increase at September Meeting, from The Wall Street Journal.)

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