Summary – A science article has sparked another climate change argument. The author theorizes the sun has two cycles that, combined, will reduce radiation and may cause cooling over the next two decades. An objective review.
One of the sillier debates is whether human activity OR natural factors shape climate. A warning – here at the Browning Bulletin we find the two interact, with different levels of influence on different parts of the globe. (For example – human activity affects urban climate more while natural factors have a bigger influence in the middle of an ocean.) One of these debates is now centered on a very well done science research article.
What made the article controversial was the authors finding that their model predicts that the pair of waves become increasingly offset during the 2022 solar cycle. Then, “During Cycle 26, which covers the decade from 2030-2040, the two waves will become exactly out of synch and this will cause a significant reduction in solar activity.” They compared this to mechanics that led to the cool Maunder Minimum.
You guessed it – the headlines proclaimed the potential doom of a new mini-ice age. Time to invest in mittens!
Then came the opposing scientific opinions. The Washington Post, for example, quoted Georg Feulner, of the Potsdam Institute on Climate Change Research claiming that the reduced solar radiation would only cool the Earth by 0.1°C, an insignificant amount compared to the 1.3 °C heating that he attributed to man-made greenhouse gases. In short, the argument now has become another man vs. nature argument.
What is significant is that the theory may explain the erratic behavior of solar cycles. It is now going through peer testing.
Here is the Browning World Climate Bulletin.
It is well worth studying this beautifully illustrated publication, in my view. The practical information is global, from a decisive break in the US Midwest drought, leading to better crops than initially expected despite all the rain, to a better than expected Indian monsoon, despite the Pacific El Niño.Back to top