Alarm Bell Rings in Tokyo at Rapid Rise in German Exports to China
Comment of the Day

July 29 2015

Commentary by David Fuller

Alarm Bell Rings in Tokyo at Rapid Rise in German Exports to China

Here is the opening of this topical article from Bloomberg:

As if Japan didn't have enough economic problems to overcome, officials in Tokyo have identified another worrying trend: lagging export growth to China. 

Rapid gains in German shipments to China have caught their attention, with exports from the European powerhouse doubling in value since 2008 and reaching 74.5 billion euros ($82.5 billion) last year. 

Japanese sales to China, the nation's biggest trading partner, crept up by just 3.3 percent over the same period. Japan still holds a solid lead though, with to 13.4 trillion yen ($109 billion) worth of shipments to China in 2014.

David Fuller's view

With all of the European Union’s recent and perennial economic problems, it is easy to lose site of a key fact. Germany remains a leading industrial power, with the competitive advantage of a soft currency.  

Investors may be understandably wary during this choppy May through October period of the year when markets underperform on average.  The silver lining is that setbacks during nervous periods provide buying opportunities often at better valuations.  Here are some samples from the German DAX Index:

Daimler, autos (est p/e 10.15 & yield 3.30%, Fresenius Medical Care not cheap but in form (est p/e 24.28 & yield 1.00%, Deutsche Telekom (est p/e 23.25 & yield 3.00%), Merck (unadjusted but recent data is accurate), pharmaceutical (est p/e 19.04 & yield 1.06%), SAP, software (est p/e 17.63 & yield 1.69%), Muenchener Rueckversicherungs-Gesellschaft, financial services (esp p/e 9.75 & yield 4.60%, K+S, fertilizers (est p/e 13.45 & yield 2.49%, Volkswagen (only 5 years shown in this instance) (est p/e 7.95 & yield 2.62%, Siemens, engineering (est p/e 14.75 & yield 3.57%), BASF, chemical (est p/e 14.53 & yield 3.62%), Deutsche Bank, (est p/e 10.79 & yield 2.48%), BMW, autos (est p/e 9.45 & yield 3.24%), Bayer, healthcare (est p/e 19.14 & yield 1.67%) and Allianz, insurance (10.45 & yield 4.57%).  Data provided by Bloomberg.

 

Please note: Eoin is away today.

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