Porsche Cayenne in China Surges on 30% SUV Delivery Rise: Cars
Comment of the Day

June 23 2011

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Porsche Cayenne in China Surges on 30% SUV Delivery Rise: Cars

This article from Bloomberg News may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:
China's super-luxury SUV market, defined by J.D. Power as those costing more than 1 million yuan ($154,700), will expand at a 17 percent annual rate over the next four years, according to a report this month.

Stuttgart, Germany-based Porsche delivered 8,612 Cayennes in 2010, 14 percent more than the previous year, according to data from the company. Prices start at 893,000 yuan in China.

Daimler AG's Mercedes-Benz SUV sales more than doubled in the first five months to 21,275 vehicles, the company said June 9. Mercedes may start assembling the GLK SUV in China as early as this year, Daimler Chief Executive Officer Dieter Zetsche said in Shanghai in April.

Great Wall Motor Co.'s Hover, whose basic 1.3-liter model starts at 43,900 yuan, was the best-selling SUV model in the first five months, according to the automakers group. The Baoding, China-based carmaker plans to add larger SUVs cater to demand for more spacious models, said Shang Yugui, deputy general manager of sales.

Eoin Treacy's view China surpassed the USA in annual car sales last year. This sector acts as a useful template to examine how Chinese and Indian companies are competing in a market traditionally dominated by US, European and Japanese brands. In the upper end of the market where price is a badge of honour rather than a bargaining tool, German manufactures continue to dominate. At the lower end of the scale where price is one of the most important factors Chinese brands are competing effectively both at home and increasingly abroad. The mid-tier sector is perhaps most competitive and is where the most diversity of performance is evident.

BMW has been among the clear leaders in the automotive sector. It accelerated to a peak near €65 by December and entered a period of mean reversion, finding support near €55 in March. It hit a new closing high yesterday and a clear downward dynamic would be required to check medium-term scope for additional upside. Volkswagen hit a new recovery high this week.

Fiat's acceleration to its late January peak was capped with a weekly key reversal. It found support in the region of the 200-day MA and continues to advance. Daimler has paused in the region of the 200-day MA since March and bounced from that area again this week. A sustained move back above €53 would help to confirm the return of medium-term demand dominance. Porsche continues to form a first step above the 2009/10 base and recently firmed above €40. A sustained move below that level would be required to check potential for some additional upside.

Greatwall Motors found support in the region of HK$10 last week and extended the rebound this week. The medium-term upside can continue to be given the benefit of the doubt provided it continues to find support in the region of HK$10. Dongfeng Motor Group has been consolidating in the region of the 200-day MA since late December and a sustained move below HK$12 would be required to check medium-term upside potential. Shanghai Automobile has been ranging below CNY20 since early 2010 and has held a progression of higher reaction lows since July. It rallied well this week and a sustained move below CNY16 would be required to check medium scope for additional upside. Geely Automobile accelerated out of a lengthy base in 2009 but has since entered a volatile ranging phase and lost much of its medium-term uptrend consistency.

Nissan Motor Co. is the best performing major Japanese producers having rallied to test the upper side of its 18-month range. Honda Motor pulled back sharply following the tsunami and subsequently steadied somewhat but has not rallied meaningfully. Suzuki has posted a progression of lower rally highs for the last 18 months but has steadied in the ¥1650 are for the last six months. Toyota Motor remains within a 30-month base formation. Mitsubishi Motors remains in a five-year downtrend and will need to sustain a move above the 200-day MA to check the decline.

Tata Motors has pulled back below the 200-day MA, in a clear trend inconsistency. While prices are somewhat oversold in the short term and there is scope for a relief rally, technical damage has been done and a sustained move above INR1200 would be required to indicate a return to medium-term demand dominance. This section from a short report posted on Bloomberg which may be of interest:

While we expect moderation in the domestic commercial vehicle segment, the volume outlook remains strong at Jaguar Land Rover (which constitutes nearly 65% of Tata Motors' EBITDA), driven by the continued strong demand from China & other emerging markets and the expected launch of Range Rover's Evoque in September 2011.

Muruti Suzuki of India has posted a progression of lower rally highs since October and extended the decline this week. A clear upward dynamic would be required to check the medium-term downtrend.

Ford Motor has also experienced a loss of uptrend consistency similar to Tata Motors above. General Motors has been trending lower since hitting a post IPO peak near $40. It will need to break the progression of lower rally highs to question the consistency of the downtrend.

Hyundai Motor Corp remains in a consistent uptrend where reactions have been one above another and of similar size. It is currently testing the lower side of the most recent range and a clear upward dynamic would be required to indicate demand is returning in this area. Even if the share finds support in this area some additional time is likely required before an additional push to the upside can be supported by underlying trading. Kia Motors hit a medium-term peak near KRW80,000 and has posted the largest reaction to date in the course of the 30-month uptrend. It will need to find support in the region of the MA, currently near KRW60,000 if the medium-term uptrend is to continue to be given the benefit of the doubt.

Peugeot Citroen found support at the lower side of its six-month range and the 200-day MA over the last week and a sustained move below €26.50 would be required to check medium-term scope for some additional upside. Renault has a relatively similar pattern but underperformed somewhat.

In the heavy goods vehicles sector both Isuzu and Volvo share a relatively similar pattern, defined by a medium-term progression of higher reaction lows which would need to be broken to question medium-term uptrend consistency.

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