Polar Ice Sheets Shrinking Worldwide, Study Confirms
Comment of the Day

November 30 2012

Commentary by David Fuller

Polar Ice Sheets Shrinking Worldwide, Study Confirms

This is an informative article by Christine Dell'Amore of National Geographic News. Here is the opening:
The polar ice sheets are indeed shrinking-and fast, according to a comprehensive new study on climate change.

And the effects, according to an international team, are equally clear-sea levels are rising faster than predicted, which could bring about disastrous effects for people and wildlife.

Rising seas would increase the risk of catastrophic flooding like that caused by Hurricane Sandy last month in New York and New Jersey. Environmental damage may include widespread erosion, contamination of aquifers and crops, and harm to marine life. And in the long term, rising seas may force hundreds of millions of people who live along the coast to abandon their homes.

By reconciling nearly two decades of often conflicting satellite data into one format-in other words, comparing apples to apples-the new study, published in the journal Science, made a more confident estimate of what's called ice sheet mass balance.

That refers to how much snow is deposited on an ice sheet versus how much is lost, either due to surface melting or ice breaking off glaciers.

Between 1992-when polar satellite measurements began-and 2011, the results show that all of the polar regions except for East Antarctica are losing ice, said study leader Andrew Shepherd, a professor of earth observation at the University of Leeds in the U.K.

In that 20-year span, Greenland lost 152 billion tons a year of ice, West Antarctica lost 65 billion tons a year, the Antarctic Peninsula lost 20 billion tons a year, and East Antarctica gained 14 billion tons a year. (See an interactive map of Antarctica.)

"When we did the experiments properly using the same time periods and same maps, the riddles did all agree," Shepherd said.

According to glaciologist Alexander Robinson, "We've had a good idea of what the ice sheets are doing, but it seems this study really brings it all together in one data set that gives a much clearer picture.

"It's one more piece of supporting evidence that shows there are some dramatic changes happening, and we know that's being driven mainly by a warmer climate and warmer ocean-but there's still a lot we don't know about these regions and how they're changing," said Robinson, of the Complutense University of Madrid in Spain, who was not involved in the research.

David Fuller's view My guess is that approximately half of the thinking population will ignore or be dismissive of this fascinating new study because we obviously do not like the implications of global warming. And yes, there is still an element of doubt so some people will cling to the considerably smaller quantity of 'scientific' evidence which refutes the growing evidence of warming.

Unfortunately, the evidence is increasing in favour of global warming, including rising average temperatures, a melting Arctic, more evidence of shrinking glaciers relative to those which are advancing, rising seas of approximately two inches since 1992 but the rate is now increasing at 3.2 millimetres per year and rising, and an increase in the number of big storms and related flooding.

I have been monitoring this warming trend for several years and it is increasing, although not always exponentially, fortunately, as there are other factors including volcanic activity which can lead to cooling if eruptions reach the upper atmosphere.

I am not yet too worried about the trend of global warming, although I fear that it will increase, preferably at a moderate rather than accelerating pace, although the odds eventually favour the latter, in my opinion. Whatever, this will certainly be preferable to a trend of global cooling, which some scientists were still predicting only just over a decade ago, albeit on sketchy evidence.

I suggest we need to think about the implications of a warmer planet. For instance, I would have some concerns for seaside property values which are likely to fall at some stage, relative to well placed higher ground sites for homes, which are more likely to appreciate over the longer term. In London, I believe many boroughs are below sea level, including most of Chelsea and South Kensington, in which case their flood defences will eventually be tested. I suspect they are inadequate at present.

If the average global trend of temperatures continues to increase, as I suspect it will, let alone accelerates, it might be a good idea to share our thoughts on the investment implications. I have long known that specialist knowledge wihin the Collective of Subscribers is a valuable resource.

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