Papandreou Wins Budget Vote as Risk of Default Recedes
Comment of the Day

June 29 2011

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Papandreou Wins Budget Vote as Risk of Default Recedes

This article by Maria Petrakis and Natalie Week for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:
Apart from sales of state assets such as a stake in Public Power Corp. SA, the former power monopoly, and levies ranging from 1 percent to 5 percent on wages, Papandreou's plan includes higher taxes on restaurants and bars, higher heating-oil taxes and lowering the tax-free threshold to 8,000 euros from 12,000 euros presently. Greek newspaper To Vima calculated the additional burden for an average Greek family of four at 2,795 euros a year, about the same as one month's income.

Implementing more austerity measures threatens to deepen a three-year recession and complicate efforts to boost government revenue. Greek gross domestic product, which contracted 4.4 percent in 2010, will shrink a further 3.8 percent this year, according to a report from EU and IMF inspectors in June. The nation's debt load will peak at 166 percent of GDP next year, and is already the biggest in the euro region's history.

Eoin Treacy's view Investors had been pricing in a worst case scenario for the Greek sovereign debt crisis. The passing of austerity measures in Greece are a positive development. French banks have also announced they are willing to roll their Greek debt holdings forward and discussions are ongoing as to whether German banks will do the same.The easing of anxiety relating to the Eurozone's sovereign debt crisis has contributed to the bounce in global stock markets and commodities over the last few days.

Greek 10-year government bond yields hit a peak near 18.3% two weeks ago and have contracted somewhat in what appears to be the beginning of a narrowing of the overextension relative to the 200-day MA.

The Euro Stoxx Banks Index has paused in the region of 150 which marked lows in 2010 and January this year. On both previous occasions, emphatic upward dynamics confirmed the return of demand in this area. A similarly impressive rally would now be required to break the four-month progression of lower rally highs and confirm support near 150.

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