Pakistan Strategy 2012
Comment of the Day

January 03 2012

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Pakistan Strategy 2012

Thanks to a subscriber for this interesting report from InvestCap Research in Karachi. Here is a section:
Relations with the US have already been categorized as a marriage gone sour, which needs to be redefined at this critical juncture that will restore Pakistan's relationship equilibrium not only particularly with the US but the West as well.

After having provided MFN status to India, regional cooperation and politics will significantly improve while economic coordination is expected to improve documented trade and commerce amongst the ever - growing Asia Pac region including Iran and Afghanistan.

Though a combination of the so - called new lot of politicians is widely anticipated to rein in country's charge next while repairing relations with the West, it will however need a sound economic team to address economic woes facing Pakistan.

Dictatorship regimes in Pakistan have always been good at delivering better economics. However, the stated position of the current military leadership being supportive of democracy is encouraging.

Interestingly, over the last two decades, Pakistan equities have reacted positively, for the most part, to any significant change in country's political setup that has taken place.

Eoin Treacy's view Thanks also for this additional report from Foundation Securities, also based in Karachi.

Pakistan doesn't just have an image problem. Poor governance, restive provinces, misadventures in Afghanistan and Kashmir, and the perception that the secret service acts independently of the government, have all conspired to declining interest from foreign investors. However, the stock market suggests a more subtle attitude is probably warranted.

The KSE-100 Index remained largely rangebound in 2011 and appears to be rallying from the lower boundary. A sustained move back above 12,000 would suggest a return to medium-term demand dominance.

The Pakistani Rupee remained relatively stable between 2010 and October of last year. However it deteriorated sharply over the last few months and while overextended in the short-term, a sustained move below PKR89 would be required to question Dollar dominance.

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