Packaging
Comment of the Day

March 19 2013

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Packaging

Eoin Treacy's view As supermarket chains such as Wal-Mart, Tesco, Ahold, Casino Guichard, Dairy Farm International among others expand their operations internationally, demand for the goods they stock their shelves with has also been on a growth trajectory. This has translated into impressive performances by the packaged foods, drinks, cosmetics, household products and toiletries sectors over the last few years. This has been a central theme among the Autonomies. Since every product that is sold to a consumer must come in some form of packaging this has driven growth in related sectors.

US listed 3M, International Paper, Bemis, MeadWestvaco, Rock-Tenn and Packaging Corp of America completed decade-long ranges in the last few months and continue to extend their respective breakouts. While they are becoming progressively more overextended relative to the trend mean, breaks in their progressions of higher reaction lows would be required to confirm mean reversion is underway. UK listed Rexam and Mondi PLC have rallied particularly well over the last month but are also susceptible to mean reversion. Australia's Brambles and Amcor completed multi-year ranges in January and are currently pulling back towards their respective means.

The above shares represent sector leadership because they completed lengthy ranges first. There are also a number of additional companies which are only now in the process of breaking out. Crown Holdings and Aptargroup have returned to test their 2011 highs. Silgan Holdings broke out last week.

Illinois Tool Works and Ball Corp has pulled back to test the region of their 200-day MAs where they have found at least short-term support. Sustained moves below their trend means would be required to question the consistency of their respective medium-term uptrends.

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