Packaged food providers
Comment of the Day

July 31 2012

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Packaged food providers

This short interesting note from Kenneth Shea at Bloomberg highlights an additional reason the packaged food sector has outperformed over the last year. Here it is in full:
Expanding modern retail food stores in emerging consumer markets are raising branded packaged food availability and consumption. Wal-Mart's store count rose at a 38% CAGR in the past five years in China and 9% in Central America. This supports growth potential for the packaged foods industry.

Eoin Treacy's view Wal-Mart is emblematic of a large number of mega cap shares that spent much of the last decade in a process of valuation contraction and rising dividend yields. It is also an S&P500 dividend aristocrat yielding 2.13%. While becoming increasingly overextended in the short-term, the 20-year chart is needed to put the recent advance into perspective. Provided the share finds support in the region of the 200-day MA on the next significant pullback, the benefit of the doubt can be given to the case for a new secular bull market.

Logically, as the footprint of globally significant supermarket chains increases, demand for the products they stock their shelves with should also improve. Nestle (listed in Switzerland and yielding 3.25%), Heinz (listed in the USA and yielding 3.73%) and Unilever (listed in the UK and Netherlands and yielding 3.33%) all hit new all-time highs in the last week as they break upwards from their respective ranges.

Kraft (2.94%), Hershey (2.12%), McCormick (2.03%), Flowers Foods (2.06%) and Lancaster Colony Corp (2.99%) listed in the USA, Associated British Foods (2.2%) listed in the UK, Uni-President Enterprises Corporation (1.78%) listed in Taiwan, Want Want (1.62%) listed in Hong Kong, Lindt & Sprungli (1.43%) listed Switzerland, Tiger Brands (3.02%) listed in South Africa and Aryzta (1.17% and listed in Ireland and Switzerland), Kerry Group (0.87%) and Glanbia (1.35%) listed in Ireland also share similar patterns of outperformance.

While the above shares are focused on the food sector, the soft drinks and alcoholic beverages sectors are equally good examples of the dominance of consumer oriented sectors among global outperformers.

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