P&G Drops as Forecast Trails Estimates on Currency Impact
Comment of the Day

April 25 2013

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

P&G Drops as Forecast Trails Estimates on Currency Impact

This article by Lauren Coleman-Lochner for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section
Results in the current quarter will be affected by increased marketing expenses for new product introductions, Chief Financial Officer Jon Moeller said on a conference call today. Foreign currency exchange is also expected to reduce net sales by 2 percent in the period, P&G said.

New product introductions and expansion in developing markets will boost sales, along with market share gains in categories such as laundry, executives said on the conference call. P&G held or increased market share in categories accounting for more than half of its total sales in the fiscal third quarter, up from 30 percent overall as of June 2012, and boosted share in the U.S. to two-thirds from 15 percent. Sales growth excluding currency fluctuations will be toward the lower end of the company's forecast range of 3 percent to 4 percent this year, Moeller said on the call.

Eoin Treacy's view Procter & Gamble is an S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrat, is one of the most highly diversified companies in the consumer sector and is an original constituent of a group of companies we refer to as Autonomies. P&G's product range can be considered a strength since there are such a small number of companies with such broad exposure to the expansion of the global middle class. However, the challenge with such a broad suite of products is where to focus marketing budgets in order to expand margins.

Procter & Gamble had become really quite overextended relative to the 200-day MA when it pulled back sharply yesterday; signalling a peak of at least near-term significance. In all likelihood, a process of mean reversion is now underway.

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