Orange-Juice Gains Most Allowed by Exchange on Storm Concerns
Comment of the Day

September 21 2010

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Orange-Juice Gains Most Allowed by Exchange on Storm Concerns

This article by Leslie Patton for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section
Orange-juice futures jumped by the exchange limit in New York, reaching the highest level in more than three years, on concern that a storm will damage Florida's citrus crops.

An area of disturbed weather, not yet named, in the Caribbean is a potential threat to the eastern Gulf of Mexico, including Florida, said Kyle Tapley, a meteorologist at MDA EarthSat Weather Inc. in Rockville, Maryland. The storm may hit Florida at the end of September or early October, he said.

"We're in the period of the year where Florida has the tendency to get hit with hurricanes," said Boyd Cruel, a senior analyst at Vision Financial Markets in Chicago. Inclement weather worldwide has been pushing up commodity prices, he said.

Eoin Treacy's view Orange Juice hit an important historic peak in 2006 in the aftermath of a very active hurricane season in 2005. It subsequently gave up the entire advance and fell back to test the multi-decade range lows near 65¢. While there has been a great deal of inclement weather in Asia and Europe, 2010 has not been notable for Atlantic storm activity. It remains a possibility that Florida will be hit with a significant weather event but this is by no means certain. Orange Juice's contango has narrowed somewhat but does not indicate a supply deficit. However, with so many soft commodities moving to outperformance, Orange Juice may be capable of a catch up advance.

Orange Juice found support from early 2009 and has sustained a progression of higher reaction lows since. It had become relatively overextended relative to the 200-day MA by December and has been ranging mostly below 150¢ for much of this year in a relatively gradual mean reversion. It found support near the MA from August and broke out of the 8-month range today. A downward dynamic would be required to check scope for some additional upside.

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