Nine Fed Officials See Main Rate Below 1% at End of 2014
Comment of the Day

January 25 2012

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Nine Fed Officials See Main Rate Below 1% at End of 2014

This article by Joshua Zumbrun and Craig Torres for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:
Nine of 17 Federal Reserve officials expect borrowing costs will remain below 1 percent at the end of 2014, with six officials expecting zero rates to remain into 2015.

Policy makers also lowered their estimates for growth and inflation in 2012, a move consistent with their statement earlier today that interest rates will remain “exceptionally low” through at least late 2014.

The projections by Federal Open Market Committee participants, released for the first time today in Washington, provide an unprecedented look at policy makers' plans for the path of the benchmark interest rate, which has remained near zero since December 2008. An increase in 2014 would mark the first rise in the fed funds rate since June 2006.

Eoin Treacy's view Today's twin announcements of the Fed's commitment to leave rates low for the foreseeable future and Apple's world beating earnings offer an interesting contrast. On the one hand the US economy is unlikely to grow as quickly as initially envisioned. On the other, Apple epitomises the success of the Autonomies. Globally oriented consumer focused companies dominating their respective niches are thriving in an environment where many domestically focused US and European companies are struggling.

US 30-year Treasuries had returned to test the lower side of their three-month range over the last couple of weeks and initially bounced emphatically following the Fed's statement. They subsequently gave up the majority of the advance and additional upside follow through tomorrow will be required to check current scope for additional downside.

The S&P 500 is in its fourth consecutive week to the upside and is becoming somewhat overbought in the short term. However, a sustained move below the 200-day MA, currently near 1200 would be required to question medium-term scope for a further test of overhead trading.

The Nasdaq-100 today became the third global index to post a new high following the August pullback. While mildly overbought in the short-term a sustained move below the 200-day MA, near 2285, would be required to begin to question medium-term scope for additional upside.

The prospect of an even more prolonged monetary accommodation weighed on the US Dollar. The Dollar Index had become quite overbought when it encountered resistance last week and extended the decline today. At least a reversion towards the mean is underway. A clear upward dynamic, held for more than a day or two, would be required to question that the hypothesis.

Gold reversed an earlier decline on the Fed's statement and pushed back above $1700 for the first time since early December. Today's upward dynamic puts gold in a position to challenge the four-month downtrend. A sustained break of the lower highs with a move above $1770 would bolster the bullish case. Provided gold holds above the MA, currently near $1625, on the next pullback the medium-term upside can be given the benefit of the doubt.

The NYSE Arca Gold BUGS Index has been ranging in the region of the lower side of the more than yearlong range for most of the month. It surged higher today and a sustained move below 500 would be required to question current scope for some additional upside.

Silver, Platinum and Palladium have all closed overextensions relative to their respective 200-day MAs. Provided they hold above their December lows, the medium-term upside can probably continue to be given the benefit of the doubt.

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